Topline
Inflation improved in October before rising again in November, according to delayed federal data released Thursday, as the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge aligned with Wall Street’s expectations.
Earlier delayed data indicated inflation cooled in the month.
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Key Facts
Annual inflation was 2.7% in October 2025 before increasing to 2.8% November, according to core consumption expenditures (PCE) price index data reported Tuesday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which last reported core PCE of 2.8% for September.
November’s core PCE matched Wall Street’s estimates, according to FactSet.
The Federal Reserve favors core PCE data over consumer price inflation reports because the central bank can better understand how Americans spend their money and how their spending habits shift over time.
Headline PCE was 2.7% in October and 2.8% in November, meeting economists’ estimates.
What To Watch For
The Federal Reserve will conclude its latest policymaking meeting on Jan. 28, though traders have priced in just 5% odds for interest rates to decline in a fourth-straight vote, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has signaled the Fed would likely pause on another cut after cutting interest rates to between 3.5% and 3.75% in December, noting the central bank and policymakers would “wait and see how the economy evolves” before additional cuts.
Key Background
President Donald Trump has claimed inflation in the U.S. has cooled significantly, saying Wednesday there was “virtually no inflation” and claiming he had “defeated” inflation over the last year. The Federal Reserve aims for an annual inflation of 2%, and has remained above that target for 57 consecutive months. Fed officials have shifted concerns to a cooling labor market over the last year, though they have pointed to high inflation in recent votes to lower interest rates. Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi told CNBC that inflation is still “uncomfortably high,” noting inflation is “especially problematic” for lower- and middle-income Americans as prices for groceries, electricity, apparel, furniture, childcare and healthcare have risen.