Bitcoin Rallies 12% as Miners Pivot to AI, DAT Consolidation Looms

Bitcoin gained 12% over the past 30 days while volatility collapsed to its lowest levels since October 2025, according to VanEck’s mid-January ChainCheck report released January 22. The rally coincided with a notable decoupling from traditional equities, with the 30-day BTC-S&P 500 correlation dropping to 0.18—the 9th percentile over the past year.

The institutional money is flowing again. Bitcoin ETP inflows hit $440 million over the past month, a dramatic reversal from the $1.3 billion in outflows during the prior 30-day period. Between January 12-14 alone, ETPs absorbed $1.66 billion in fresh capital.

Miners Are Leaving for Greener Pastures

Perhaps more telling than the price action is what’s happening underground. Bitcoin’s hash rate has dropped 6% from its mid-November 2025 peak, marking the longest sustained decline since spring 2024. Mining difficulty fell 2%, while estimated global miner power consumption dropped from 206 TWh to 203 TWh.

Some of this reflects seasonal winter curtailment—Riot earned $6.2 million in power credits last month, up 520% from December 2024. But the bigger story is structural.

“It’s that HPC creates so much more value per unit of energy and does so predictably for years into the future that the company can’t justify further investment into bitcoin mining,” Bitfarms CEO Ben Gagnon told Wired. VanEck projects AI data center demand will grow at a 24% CAGR through 2030, steadily siphoning compute resources away from Bitcoin.

The DAT Problem Nobody Wants to Talk About

Digital Asset Treasuries—companies that use financial engineering to accumulate Bitcoin exposure—now hold over 867,000 BTC worth approximately $82.5 billion, representing 4.3% of floating supply. That concentration creates systemic risk.

Of 26 DATs holding more than 1,000 BTC, only six trade above their net asset value. The rest are underwater, raising questions about their ability to continue operations without liquidating holdings. If Bitcoin prices decline further, the reflexive selling could accelerate.

VanEck sees consolidation as the pressure valve. The recently completed Strive Inc.-Semler Scientific merger offers a template: larger DATs acquire smaller ones at discounts, boosting their BTC-per-share metrics while giving distressed sellers an exit above fire-sale prices.

Three potential targets stand out: Germany-based Bitcoin Group (3,605 BTC, 0.53x mNAV), Empery Digital (4,081 BTC, 0.70x mNAV), and France-based Sequans Communications (2,264 BTC, 0.52x mNAV). Each carries complications—regulatory hurdles, governance friction, or operational complexity—but the discounts make them tempting.

What the On-Chain Data Says

Network health metrics flashed warning signs. Daily revenues fell 15%, active addresses dropped 6%, and new addresses declined 4%. But long-term holder behavior improved. Bitcoin supply dormant for over five years increased by 176 basis points, with 95,500 BTC aging into these cohorts. The share of BTC unmoved for over a year rose 69 basis points since mid-December.

With BTC trading near $90,000 as of January 21 and open interest climbing 7% to $32.4 billion, the market appears positioned for continued volatility. The CLARITY Act optimism VanEck cites could provide regulatory tailwinds, but macro uncertainty—particularly around tariff risks discussed at Davos this week—keeps traders cautious.

The next catalyst worth watching: Empery Digital’s annual meeting in May 2026. If the mNAV discount persists, expect the M&A speculation to intensify.

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