While the market often fixates on weekly candle closes and ETF inflows, ARK Invest’s “Big Ideas 2026” report suggests we are no longer in its early phase, but entering a major structural shift.
According to the report, Cathie Wood’s latest outlook goes beyond simple growth expectations.
ARK projected that the total value of digital assets could reach $28 trillion by 2030, with Bitcoin playing the central role.
In fact, the firm believes Bitcoin will account for around 70% of the overall market, giving it a potential valuation of $16 trillion.
How did 2025 work in favour of Bitcoin?
The year 2025 ended the idea that Bitcoin [BTC] is mainly a speculative asset and introduced what ARK calls the “Strategic Reserve era”.
Two key political events changed how Bitcoin’s risk was viewed.
After U.S. President Donald Trump’s inauguration in January 2025, regulatory uncertainty eased, and markets quickly adjusted.
This shift became clearer in March 2025, when an executive order signaled that the U.S. government was willing to treat Bitcoin as a national treasury asset. And…that decision triggered a wider response.
Within the U.S., states began competing to build their own Bitcoin reserves, with Texas and various others launching a state-level strategic reserve by the end of 2025.
Outside the U.S., Japan’s Metaplanet built a Bitcoin treasury worth $5.4 billion, showing that interest in Bitcoin as a long-term store of value is spreading globally, not just in Western markets.
The ETF space speaks volumes
Additionally, in 2025, Bitcoin held by ETFs grew by 19.7%, reaching 1.29 million BTC.
Even more notable, Bitcoin held by public companies jumped 73%, reaching 1.09 million BTC.
Adding further, the report noted,
“As a result, the percent of bitcoin outstanding held by ETFs and public companies increased from 8.7% to 12%.”
Interestingly, Bitcoin also stood out in terms of risk and returns.
In 2025, its risk-adjusted performance was better than Ethereum [ETH], Solana [SOL], and the broader CoinDesk 10 index.
This supports ARK’s view that Bitcoin is becoming a safe-haven asset for institutions, rather than just a volatile investment.
Current market dynamics
As per CoinMarketCap data, Bitcoin was trading around $89,912, down just 0.75% in the last 24 hours. Yet, despite this, the Bitcoin dominance chart stood close to 59.7% at press time.
So, rather than being a warning sign, this level of dominance is considered healthy.
It showed that money is not leaving crypto, but instead moving toward the asset investors see as the most secure.
Ark’s take on stablecoins and RWAs
Additionally, ARK’s report also talked about how the GENIUS Act gave clear legal support to stablecoins, which helped drive rapid growth.
By December 2025, stablecoin transaction volume reached $3.5 trillion.
The report added,
“Circle’s stablecoin, USDC, dominated adjusted transaction volume with ~60% share, followed by Tether’s USDT’s ~35%.”
At the same time, the total value of tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) also tripled to $18.9 billion, and ARK believes this area alone could grow to $11 trillion by 2030.
This contradicts Wood’s November 2025 view, when she lowered her most bullish Bitcoin price target for 2030 from $1.5 million to $1.2 million.
Final Thoughts
- Volatility now masks structural strengthening rather than systemic fragility.
- Political clarity in 2025 fundamentally altered Bitcoin’s risk profile, accelerating its adoption as a strategic reserve asset.
Source: https://ambcrypto.com/decoding-arks-big-ideas-2026-can-bitcoin-really-capture-70-of-the-market/