What Oscar Nominations Prediction Markets Got Wrong: Ariana Grande Snub

Topline

Online bettors waged millions on which movies and actors would earn nominations at the Academy Awards this year, and although many predictions were correct, a few were wrong—like Ariana Grande missing a Best Supporting Actress nod and “F1” surprising in Best Picture.

Grande was nominated for her performance in the first “Wicked” film, but she didn’t get nominated for “Wicked: For Good.” (Photo by Marleen Moise/WireImage)

WireImage

Key Facts

Online bettors correctly predicted movies like “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners” would capture nominations in top categories at the Oscars, according to bets waged by users on online prediction platforms Polymarket and Kalshi.

But some predictions were off, like the supporting actress category, with neither Polymarket nor Kalshi predicting Oscar nominee Elle Fanning, while Polymarket bettors incorrectly projected Ariana Grande would get a nod,.

The Academy Award nominations were announced Thursday morning, with “Sinners” earning a record-shattering 16 nods, the most of all time.

Prediction markets have recently become more popular in determining awards winners, and Polymarket inked a partnership with the Golden Globes earlier this year to display real-time odds during the ceremony.

Best Picture

Both Polymarket and Kalshi predicted the same 10 nominees for Best Picture earlier this week, but only nine made it in. Bettors on both sites incorrectly predicted “It Was Just An Accident” would earn a Best Picture nomination, while neither predicted actual nominee “F1.” Earlier this week, three movies on Polymarket had odds of 100% to earn a Best Picture nomination: “One Battle After Another,” “Hamnet” and “Marty Supreme.” Rounding out the ten possible nomination slots on Polymarket are “Sinners” (99% odds), “Frankenstein” (98%), “Sentimental Value” (97%), “Bugonia” (90%), “The Secret Agent” (84%), “Train Dreams” (79%) and “It Was Just An Accident” (64%). On Kalshi, where the betting volume exceeds $7 million, “Marty Supreme,” “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners” led with 99% odds, while “Frankenstein” (98%), “Hamnet” (98%) and “Sentimental Value” (97%) also had near-perfect odds.

Best Director

Both Polymarket and Kalshi correctly predicted the same five nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson (“One Battle After Another”), Ryan Coogler (“Sinners”), Joachim Trier (“Sentimental Value”), Chloé Zhao (“Hamnet”) and Josh Safdie (“Marty Supreme”). Anderson had the best odds on both prediction markets, with a 100% shot for a nomination on Kalshi and a 99% chance according to Polymarket. Just outside the top five are Guillermo del Toro (“Frankenstein”) and Jafar Panahi (“It Was Just An Accident”), who rank sixth and seventh on both Polymarket and Kalshi, respectively.

Best Actor

Polymarket and Kalshi bettors correctly predicted the five Best Actor nominees: Timothée Chalamet (“Marty Supreme”), Leonardo DiCaprio (“One Battle After Another”), Michael B. Jordan (“Sinners”), Ethan Hawke (“Blue Moon”) and Wagner Moura (“The Secret Agent”). Chalamet had the best odds for a Best Actor nomination for his performance in “Marty Supreme,” with Polymarket bettors giving him a 100% shot and Kalshi predictors giving him 99% odds for a nomination. Also earning very high odds on both platforms were Leonardo DiCaprio (“One Battle After Another”), who had a 100% chance on Polymarket and a 98% shot according to Kalshi, and Michael B. Jordan (“Sinners”), who had 95% odds on both platforms. The rest of the top five were less certain: Wagner Moura, star of “The Secret Agent,” had 87% odds on both platforms, while “Blue Moon” star Ethan Hawke had 77% odds on Polymarket and a 74% chance on Kalshi. Just outside the top five is “Bugonia” actor Jesse Plemons, who had a 35% chance on Polymarket and a 38% chance on Kalshi.

Best Actress

Polymarket and Kalshi were split on Best Actress, with Polymarket bettors correctly predicting the five nominees and Kalshi bettors incorrectly predicting Chase Infiniti (“One Battle After Another”) for a nomination, and not Kate Hudson (“Song Sung Blue”), whose name was called Thursday morning. Jessie Buckley (“Hamnet”) and Rose Byrne (“If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”), who earlier this month won the Best Actress Golden Globes for drama and comedy, respectively, had near-perfect odds of a nomination, according to both Polymarket and Kalshi. Norwegian actress Renate Reinsve (“Sentimental Value”) ranked third on both platforms, with 93% odds on Polymarket and 94% odds on Kalshi. Emma Stone (“Bugonia”) ranked fourth on both platforms with 89% odds. Polymarket bettors had Kate Hudson (“Song Sung Blue”) in fifth place with 40% odds, while Kalshi bettors gave Chase Infiniti (“One Battle After Another”) a 72% chance for a nomination.

Best Supporting Actor

Both Polymarket and Kalshi predicted four of the five nominees, with more than 90% odds for each: Stellan Skarsgard (“Sentimental Value”), Jacob Elordi (“Frankenstein”), Sean Penn (“One Battle After Another”), Benicio del Toro (“One Battle After Another”) and Paul Mescal (“Hamnet”). But Mescal did not receive a nomination, while “Sinners” actor Delroy Lindo earned the nod. Lindo had 9% odds on Kalshi and 8% odds on Polymarket earlier this week.

Best Supporting Actress

Neither Polymarket nor Kalshi predicted Elle Fanning (“Sentimental Value”) would earn a nomination, though she earned the nod Thursday morning. Polymarket incorrectly predicted Ariana Grande (“Wicked: For Good”), who ranked fifth in their odds with a low 47% chance, while Kalshi bettors wrongly predicted Odessa A’zion (“Marty Supreme”), who had a 53% chance. Both platforms correctly predicted Teyana Taylor (“One Battle After Another”) and Amy Madigan (“Weapons”), who had higher than 95% odds on both sites, while also correctly predicting Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (“Sentimental Value”) and Wunmi Mosaku (“Sinners”).

Which Films Earned The Most Oscar Nominations?

“Sinners” shattered the all-time record for the most Oscar nominations, earning a leading 16 nods. The horror film earned top nods including Best Picture, Best Director for Ryan Coogler and Best Actor for Michael B. Jordan. “One Battle After Another” earned 13 nominations, while “Frankenstein,” “Marty Supreme” and “Sentimental Value each earned 9.

When Are The Academy Awards?

The 98th Oscars will take place on March 15 at 7 p.m. EST. The ceremony will air live on ABC and simultaneously stream live on Hulu. Comedian Conan O’Brien will return for a second straight ceremony as host.