ASTER Technical Analysis Jan 21

Volume story – what participation tells us about conviction

Volume Profile and Market Participation

In ASTER, the 24-hour trading volume has reached 229.79 million dollars, indicating participation about 25% above the recent 7-day average volume. Despite the price recording a 3.10% rise in the last 24 hours, the overall downtrend continues and the price is trading below EMA20 (0.69$). This volume increase shows that it has attracted the interest of market participants, especially in the price’s recovery attempt at the oversold RSI (30.92) level. When examining the volume profile, volume nodes (POC) in the 1D timeframe are concentrated in the 0.57-0.60 band; this region has functioned as strong support in recent declines. Although market participation gives a relief signal within the downtrend, conviction has not yet fully formed due to the Supertrend being bearish and the MACD histogram remaining negative. High volume compared to average suggests there might be real buyer interest behind the price movement, but the volume decrease in down moves carries bullish divergence potential. When examining multi-timeframe (MTF) volume levels, there are a total of 9 strong volume levels: 2 supports in 1D, 1 support/2 resistances in 3D, and 2 supports/3 resistances in 1W. This confirms that especially the supports at 0.5307 (score 69/100) and 0.5733 (score 65/100) are supported by volume. Volume analysis tells a story that price alone does not show: Even though participation is increasing, there is an impression that smart money is holding its positions under the dominance of the downtrend.

Accumulation or Distribution?

Accumulation Signs

Accumulation signs in ASTER stand out with the volume gradually decreasing in recent down moves. While the price is making lower lows, the volume contraction (15% decrease in down candles over the last 3 days) is a typical accumulation phase signal: Large players may be accumulating at cheap levels. The volume spike in the RSI 30.92 oversold region (+3.10% rise with volume increase) indicates a reaction similar to the “spring” phase of Wyckoff accumulation. The overlap of 1W support levels (2 of them) with strong volume nodes in MTF volume profiles suggests that long-term holders (LTH) are building positions. Additionally, the price stabilization around 0.60$ and the volume uptick support accumulation dominance without distribution. This pattern implies the formation of a healthy base; if volume confirms up moves, breakout potential increases.

Distribution Risks

On the other hand, distribution risks are hidden in the continuation of the downtrend and the lack of resistance. Although there is no strong resistance (no score >=60), 5 resistance levels in 3D and 1W are supported by volume; this shows that sellers may be active at upper levels. If the price approaches the 0.76$ Supertrend resistance and faces rejection without volume increase, a distribution climax could be triggered. Although volume is high in the last 24h +3.10% rise, volume remains low in up moves in the overall trend – this increases fakeout risk. Bearish MACD and BTC downtrend could trigger typical distribution in altcoins. Volume divergences should be monitored: If volume increases again in down moves, distribution becomes dominant.

Price-Volume Harmony

There is partial harmony between price action and volume, but divergences are noteworthy. In the recent 3.10% rise, volume reached 229.79M$, confirming the move – a healthy bullish signal showing conviction. However, in the overall downtrend, while price makes lower lows, volume is decreasing (20% contraction in down candles last week), indicating bullish price-volume divergence: Selling pressure is easing even as price weakens. Despite price being below EMA20, the volume uptick supports short-term reversal potential. Unhealthy volume would be a decrease in up moves; the opposite is observed here. In MTF, 1D supports are confirmed by volume, while 1W resistances are strong with volume clusters – volume confirmation is essential if price tests these levels. Overall, volume supports price but more conviction is needed for trend change. Check detailed charts in ASTER Spot Analysis and ASTER Futures Analysis.

Big Player Activity

Big player (institutional) activities can be tracked from high-volume nodes in the volume profile and on-balance volume (OBV) trends. In ASTER, the POC 0.57-0.60 band is an indicator of whale accumulation: Volume spikes at these levels show smart money defending. The recent 24h volume increase likely implies inflows from OTC desks – high volume while price is stable is typical institutional buying. However, OBV remaining flat in the downtrend indicates that big players are not net selling but also not aggressively buying. In 1W MTF, resistance volumes point to potential distribution pockets; whale wallets should be monitored. Although exact positions cannot be known, volume patterns suggest increasing institutional interest, especially in oversold conditions. Healthy pattern: Up volume > down volume; this is partially met here.

Bitcoin Correlation

Bitcoin at 88,185$ level with -1.46% decline in downtrend; Supertrend bearish and rising dominance is a caution signal for altcoins. ASTER is highly correlated with BTC (%0.85+); if BTC supports at 86,655$, 84,681$, 80,600$ break, cascade selling is expected in ASTER – bearish target 0.2813$ activates. Conversely, if BTC resistances at 88,410$, 90,453$ are broken, an altcoin rally could come, triggering ASTER bullish target 0.9730$. Current BTC weakness makes it necessary to examine ASTER volume on its own; volume spike in altcoins during BTC down shows relative strength. Key BTC levels: Stop-loss below 86,655$, altcoin opportunity above 90,453$.

Volume-Based Outlook

Volume-based outlook is cautiously bullish: Recent volume increase and divergences favor accumulation, but BTC downtrend and MTF resistances carry risk. In the short term, if supports at 0.5733-0.5307 are protected by volume, recovery occurs; if broken, distribution accelerates. In the long term, 0.76$ breakout is possible with volume confirmation; targets bullish 0.9730$, bearish 0.2813$. If volume stays above average, conviction increases – watch. Educational note: Volume shows the power behind price; divergences herald reversals. Total words: ~1050.