ADA Faces Fresh Pressure as Outflows Fade but Structure Stays Weak

• ADA breaks range support as sellers dominate, keeping price capped below key averages
• Resistance between $0.3855–$0.3885 limits rebounds unless bulls reclaim momentum
• Falling open interest and weak spot flows signal cooling demand and downside risk

Cardano (ADA) is showing fresh downside pressure as sellers regain control on the 4-hour chart. After several failed attempts to clear a key resistance band, ADA broke below its prior range support and slid toward $0.360. That move signaled weaker buyer defense and a clearer bearish shift in the short-term structure. 

Besides the price breakdown, derivatives and spot flow data also point to softer momentum. Traders now watch whether ADA can stabilize above support or continue drifting lower.

ADA Breaks Lower as Resistance Holds Firm

ADA now trades near $0.3600, which has become the immediate line buyers must protect. However, the chart still favors sellers because price remains under key moving averages and Supertrend sell pressure. Hence, any rebound may stay limited unless bulls reclaim higher levels with strength.

The first level to watch sits at $0.3705, which aligns with the 0.382 Fibonacci mark. Additionally, the $0.3833 zone stands out as a key pivot because it previously supported price action. 

ADA also faces heavier resistance near $0.3855 to $0.3885, where moving averages cluster closely. Consequently, a clean break above that band would matter for any short-term reversal attempt.

If $0.3600 fails, the next downside support rests near $0.3546. A deeper slide could then bring $0.3289 back into view, which marks the prior swing low. Significantly, a drop into that zone would confirm stronger downside continuation.

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On the upside, buyers need to push through $0.3918 to regain the range top area. Moreover, a stronger recovery would expose $0.4145 as the next target. The larger swing resistance remains near $0.4377 from the latest recovery peak.

Open Interest and Spot Flows Show Cooling Demand

Open interest trends also reflect shifting sentiment. It rose into late Q4 during ADA’s rally, then spiked during the breakout phase. 

However, those surges repeatedly reset fast, suggesting traders reduced risk after volatility. In recent months, open interest rolled over from yearly highs, with the latest reading near $646 million.

Spot flows also stayed negative for months, with outflows dominating from late March through early January. Additionally, several sharp sell-side bursts appeared during weaker price phases. Recently, flows showed lighter selling and a small net inflow near $287,800. However, ADA still needs sustained demand to challenge resistance zones again.

Technical Outlook for Cardano (ADA) Price

Key levels remain clearly defined for Cardano as downside pressure persists into the near term. 

On the upside, $0.3705 stands as the first reclaim level, followed by $0.3833 as a critical midpoint resistance. Moreover, the $0.3855–$0.3885 EMA cluster acts as a strong ceiling that bulls must clear to regain structure. A breakout above $0.3918 could shift momentum and open room toward $0.4145 and $0.4377.

On the downside, $0.3600 remains the immediate support holding the current base. However, failure to defend this zone exposes ADA to $0.3546 and then $0.3289, the recent swing low. Significantly, ADA trades below key moving averages, confirming bearish control. The technical picture suggests ADA remains in a vulnerable phase, where any bounce risks staying corrective.

Will Cardano Stabilize or Break Lower?

ADA’s near-term outlook depends on whether buyers can hold $0.360 and reclaim the $0.370–$0.383 range. Consequently, sustained weakness below support could extend the downtrend. For now, ADA sits at a pivotal zone, where confirmation will determine the next directional move.