Bitcoin slipped below the $90,000 mark after failing to hold its push toward $100,000 last week, but on-chain and macro data suggest the broader market structure remains supportive rather than fragile.
Recent analysis shared by Ki Young Ju, based on CryptoQuant data, shows that institutional demand for Bitcoin has not weakened during the pullback.
Key Takeaways
- Institutional wallets holding 100-1,000 BTC continue to accumulate, adding roughly 577,000 BTC over the past year.
- Bitcoin’s dip below $90,000 appears driven by short-term volatility rather than a breakdown in long-term demand.
- Global M2 growth remains below levels historically associated with cycle tops, suggesting the liquidity regime is still supportive.
Wallets typically associated with US-based custody services – excluding exchanges and miners – continue to accumulate steadily. These wallets usually hold between 100 and 1,000 BTC and are widely used as a proxy for institutional exposure, including ETF-related holdings.
Institutional demand for Bitcoin remains strong.
US custody wallets typically hold 100-1,000 BTC each. Excluding exchanges and miners, this gives a rough read on institutional demand. ETF holdings included.
577K BTC ($53B) added over the past year, and still flowing in. pic.twitter.com/kG1c8dTvlq
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) January 19, 2026
Over the past 12 months, roughly 577,000 BTC, worth about $53 billion, has been added to this category. More importantly, the trend has not stalled, suggesting large players are still allocating even as short-term price volatility increases.
Institutions keep buying as price cools
The data highlights a familiar pattern. While Bitcoin’s price has moved sharply over the past year, balances held by mid-sized institutional wallets have climbed in a much smoother, upward trajectory. This divergence often appears during consolidation phases, when long-term capital absorbs supply from short-term traders.
The recent dip below $90,000 fits this framework. Rather than signaling broad distribution, on-chain flows point to continued accumulation beneath the surface, especially from entities with longer investment horizons.
Global liquidity adds macro context
Beyond on-chain data, global liquidity trends offer additional insight into where Bitcoin may sit in the broader cycle. Historically, major Bitcoin market tops have tended to form when Global M2 money supply growth exceeded roughly 14% year over year.
Those moments either coincided with, or arrived very close to, cycle highs.
At present, Global M2 is growing at about 11.4% year over year. This places current conditions below the levels that previously marked peak euphoria, implying that liquidity expansion may still have room to run before reaching historically overheated territory.
The opposite relationship has also been consistent. Periods when M2 growth turned negative aligned closely with major Bitcoin bottoms, reflecting tighter financial conditions and macro stress. From that perspective, today’s environment looks more like an expansion phase than a contraction one.
The 2015 exception investors are watching
There is, however, an important historical caveat. In 2015, global liquidity failed to expand meaningfully, and Bitcoin remained locked in a prolonged bear market despite the absence of a deep monetary contraction. During that period, the correlation between Bitcoin and Global M2 weakened significantly.
This makes the current question less about short-term price swings and more about regime direction. If Bitcoin maintains its historical relationship with global liquidity, continued M2 growth could support higher prices over time. If a 2015-style decoupling emerges, the market could face a longer consolidation phase even without aggressive tightening.
Tracking both institutional flows and global liquidity remains crucial, not for pinpointing exact tops or bottoms, but for understanding which phase of the Bitcoin cycle the market is truly navigating.
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Alex is an experienced financial journalist and cryptocurrency enthusiast. With over 8 years of experience covering the crypto, blockchain, and fintech industries, he is well-versed in the complex and ever-evolving world of digital assets. His insightful and thought-provoking articles provide readers with a clear picture of the latest developments and trends in the market. His approach allows him to break down complex ideas into accessible and in-depth content. Follow his publications to stay up to date with the most important trends and topics.
Source: https://coindoo.com/market/bitcoins-cycle-is-not-over-yet-here-is-why/