CME FedWatch Signals 95% Odds Rates Hold Steady in January

Key Points:

  • CME FedWatch sees 95% chance rates hold steady January 2026.
  • Low chance of 25bps cut impacts crypto markets.
  • Bitcoin and Ethereum could react to rate decisions.

BlockBeats News reports CME’s “FedWatch” projects a 5% chance for a 25 basis point rate cut in January, with a 95% likelihood of rates staying unchanged.

CME’s Fed rate predictions are crucial for understanding market expectations, impacting cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, which often respond to macroeconomic changes.

FedWatch Predicts 95% Chance of No Rate Change

CME FedWatch, a leading market tool, indicates a high probability of unchanged interest rates (95%) in January and only a 5% likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut. This update aligns with market expectations and supports current economic assessments.

Low likelihood of rate cuts suggests stable conditions for interest-sensitive assets, possibly sustaining existing trading volumes. Market analysts note the possible stabilization impact on cryptocurrencies, with speculation on how this will influence investor strategies.

“It seems there are no primary source statements or direct quotes from notable individuals or organizations related to the January 20 BlockBeats-reported CME FedWatch probabilities.”

Responses from industry figures and analysts indicate cautious optimism, with attention on further updates. Without direct statements from major cryptocurrency leaders, market participants are left to infer implications through trading activity, maintaining vigilant market watch.

Market Reactions: Crypto Stability Amid Rate Predictions

Did you know? Stable interest rates can lead to increased investment in cryptocurrencies as investors seek to maximize returns in a predictable environment.

Bitcoin (BTC) currently trades at $92,620.40 with a market cap of 1.85 trillion USD, representing 59.10% market dominance. Recent data from CoinMarketCap shows a 24-hour trading volume surge of 115.73%, although the price decreased by 2.11% over the same period. Notably, BTC’s price shifted by 1.63% over the last seven days.

bitcoin-daily-chart-5741

Bitcoin(BTC), daily chart, screenshot on CoinMarketCap at 23:37 UTC on January 19, 2026. Source: CoinMarketCap

Market analysis from Coincu indicates that stable interest rates may support sustained investment in digital currencies. As macroeconomic indicators remain static, Bitcoin and Ethereum are expected to mirror broader market conditions. Historical data suggests these assets often coincide with prominent economic announcements, further entwining financial strategies.

Source: https://coincu.com/markets/cme-fedwatch-january-rate-outlook/