Federal Reserve Maintains Rates; Minor Impact on Crypto Markets

The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates in January 2026, with a 5% chance of a 25 basis point cut.

This stability, with higher chances of unchanged rates, affects cryptocurrency markets, particularly assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, which historically respond to shift in monetary policy expectations.

Market Response and Economic Indicators: Crypto’s Limited Reaction

CME FedWatch data reveals a low probability of rate changes for January and March, maintaining a likely stance of existing interest rate levels. With 95% certainty, the Federal Reserve’s current strategy remains steady, reflecting cautious economic assessments and adapting to inflation metrics.

The minimal rate change likelihood aligns with traditional market predictions, minimally affecting Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) due to predictable policy positions. The crypto market often reacts to these decisions based on liquidity projections and rate expectations among investors.

“With inflation pressures easing—after excluding one-off tariff effects—and with the risk that labor market conditions could weaken further, I see policy as moderately restrictive.” – Michelle Bowman, Vice Chair, Federal Reserve

While key figures such as Jerome Powell maintain a moderate stance, no radical shifts or vocal responses have emerged from well-known crypto personalities. This measured approach suggests ongoing stability within macroeconomic strategies and underlying market assumptions.

Historical Context, Price Data, and Expert Insights

Did you know? The Federal Reserve’s steady interest rates closely resemble the January 2025 pause which followed a significant 100 basis point reduction in 2024.

According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin (BTC) currently trades at $92,571.44 with a 24-hour volume of $26.83 billion (67.07% increase). Its market cap stands at $1.85 trillion, with a 24-hour price decline of 2.71% but a 7-day gain of 1.99%. With a circulating supply near 19.98 million, Bitcoin’s recent volatility reflects broader economic trends and rate expectations.

Coincu research highlights the nuanced regulatory landscape as macroeconomic policies evolve. Potential financial impacts remain subdued amid these decisions, as technological advancements and liquidity concerns shape the ongoing discourse around major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. Explore how you can buy cryptocurrency easily with Phemex platform.