Cowen sees Bitcoin in a post-cycle phase where tight liquidity and weak demand favor short-term rallies over sustained growth.
Crypto markets may be entering a period where rallies are shorter and more selective, according to analyst Benjamin Cowen. In his latest Crypto Macro Risk Memo—Q1 2026, Cowen argues that Bitcoin and the wider market have moved past the main growth phase of the recent cycle.
With macro liquidity still tight, price gains are more likely to be tactical moves rather than the start of a new long-lasting bull run.
Bitcoin Likely Past 2023–2025 Cycle Peak, According to Cowen
Cowen’s report looks at crypto through macro liquidity, market structure, on-chain data, and participation trends. Instead of short-term price calls, the focus stays on risk and whether conditions support adding exposure.
The analyst believes the OG coin Bitcoin has likely completed its 2023–2025 cycle. According to him, the firstborn coin has entered a digestion phase similar to mid-2019.
Bitcoin peaked in the fourth quarter of last year, a trend common with other post-halving cycles. However, the character of this peak differed from that seen in 2017 and 2021. Past cycle tops formed during periods of heavy excitement, rapid retail inflows, and broad speculation.
Image Source: Crypto Macro Risk Memo
By contrast, the latest peak formed during widespread apathy. Social engagement, speculative activity, and retail interest stayed muted even as Bitcoin reached new highs.
According to Cowen, apathy-driven peaks tend to lead to choppier declines rather than deep drops. And such trends generally extend bear markets. The 2019 drawdown lasted less time than the long declines following the euphoric peaks of 2017 and 2021.
Even so, price action during those phases was uneven. Moreover, it was accompanied by frequent countertrend rallies that failed to alter the broader trend.
Macro conditions add another layer of caution. Economic growth shows signs of cooling but remains firm enough to limit aggressive liquidity support. History shows Bitcoin often peaks before monetary policy stabilizes.
In past cycles, prices continued to weaken even after tightening slowed or stopped. For that reason, Cowen sees the current risk profile leaning toward capital protection rather than aggressive growth.
Cowen Warns Post-Peak Rallies Face Structural Selling Pressure
Cowen also cited cycle-relative data in his analysis. Calendar returns early in the year can give a false sense of strength. Once Bitcoin enters a post-peak phase, returns tend to weaken over time. Long-term holders often sell into rallies, creating overhead supply. Without steady new demand, upside becomes limited while downside risk stays open.
Image Source: Crypto Macro Risk Memo
A core section of the memo outlines how current market behavior fits a post-cycle environment:
- Market peaks formed without broad retail excitement or speculative excess
- Rallies face selling pressure from long-term holders distributing into strength.
- Liquidity growth lacks the risk-taking capital seen in past bull markets.
- Correlations with equities remain weak and unstable.
- Price action favors short-term trades over long-term trend moves.
Crypto markets rely not only on how much liquidity exists, but on whether that liquidity is willing to take risk. Although the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has started to grow again, Cowen suggests the expansion is mainly tied to reserve management and financial system support. As a result, it lacks the kind of stimulus that usually drives speculative risk-taking.
Previous crypto bull runs were fueled by emergency policy responses to severe economic stress. That backdrop has not returned.
Bitcoin Shows Weak Correlation With Equities as Liquidity Stays Selective
During strong crypto bull phases, Bitcoin usually moves closely with other risk assets as capital flows freely across markets. Current correlations show a split.
Equities and metals remain linked to macro-driven capital, while crypto trades with less consistency. That suggests the liquidity supporting stocks and real assets are not flowing into digital assets at the same scale.
Given all these, Cowen sees the market in a digestion phase similar to 2019. Rallies are likely, and some assets may perform well over short periods. However, structural limits remain until liquidity conditions, participation levels, and on-chain signals reset. For now, crypto appears better suited to tactical positioning rather than broad, long-term expansion.