Bitcoin demand outpaces issuance by 6x – Is this a scarcity-driven expansion?

Institutional buyers are absorbing Bitcoin [BTC] faster than miners can supply it. In 2026, institutions purchased roughly six times new issuance.

Bitcoin is being absorbed in institutions at a pace never seen before. Back in 2021, the demand stood at approximately 236,000 BTC, which was less than the new supply of approximately 330,000.

While 2022 inverted the negative, it recovered in 2023 with approximately 111,000 BTC being purchased and 337,000 being mined.

The real shift came in 2024 though. The institutional demand climbed up to approximately 913,000 BTC while the supply dropped to 218,000.

Source: X

It continued to gain momentum in 2025 through 702,000 BTC purchased and 166,000 mined. In 2026, the rate of purchases remains six times higher than the supply.

These actions indicate ETF acceptance, post or half tenure scarcity, and long term allocation objectives.

Past imbalances of this kind have been precursors of massive price expansions and strengthening bullish responses throughout market cycles.

M2 growth on the up, but will it favor Bitcoin’s upside?

The growth rate of M2 in the world economy is rising at an alarming rate, with the same hitting the highest post-2020 rate.

This is being fueled by central bank easing, fiscal deficits and liquidity injections. As a result, the financial conditions have become relaxed. Risk appetite has improved too.

Bitcoin traditionally lags behind this change. Bitcoin was in perpetuated bull cycles during previous M2 expansions, especially in 2017, 2020, and 2021.

Source: X

When the liquidity becomes persistently positive, the correlation becomes powerful. Notably, its growth is not linear and is also broad and uneven as it varies according to the cycles.

Nevertheless, surplus liquidity tries to find limited sources of assets. The absorption of flows is covered by the fixed supply, portability, and global accessibility of Bitcoin.

If global M2 growth remains positive and continues accelerating, liquidity should keep favoring Bitcoin over time.

However, investors must watch for any slowdown or reversal in money supply growth. Especially since previous cycles have shown that Bitcoin rallies weaken quickly once liquidity momentum rolls over.

Bitcoin ETF Inflows regain momentum as institutions anchor BTC near $96K

At press time, Bitcoin was trading near $96,000 after rebounding from its recent weakness. Macro uncertainty, shifting rate expectations, and risk rotation drove the short-term swings.

However, institutional positioning now matters more. This is where ETF flows become critical.

For instance – The analysis chart highlighted repeated surges in Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows since May 2025. These spikes aligned closely with local price advances too.

Source: X

Large green bars are indicative of aggressive institutional accumulation. On the contrary, sustained red bars often coincide with corrective phases.

Notably, 15 January’s inflows of $840 million stand out. They mirrored previous accumulation waves seen in July and October. These flows actively influenced the altcoin’s price. Strong inflows absorbed sell pressure and pushed Bitcoin towards higher ranges too.

Meanwhile, clustered buying reduced downside volatility. This can be seen as evidence of a structure. This means that these flows were not mere noise. Instead, they reflected capital rotation and conviction.

With this in mind, investors should watch out for persistence flows . Sustained inflows support stabilization while reversals reopen risk.

Final Thoughts

• Institutional demand now exceeds Bitcoin’s new supply by a wide margin, with ETF inflows and post-halving scarcity creating a structurally tighter market.

• Bitcoin’s upside increasingly depends on liquidity persistence, as sustained ETF inflows and positive M2 growth support stability, while reversals could weaken momentum.