Bitcoin OGs’ sell-off falls by 73%, but will that help BTC’s Q1 outlook?

Bitcoin OGs have reduced their selling pressure, further boosting the crypto asset’s recovery odds. These are investors who showed early conviction in BTC, including early miners, developers, and first adopters. 

Some of these investors purchased BTC when the price was below $100 and subsequently made a massive profit after holding for over 5 years. 

The explosive Bitcoin [BTC] run this cycle attracted profit-taking from this cohort, a move some analysts said partially slowed the asset’s momentum in 2025. 

However, at press time, the selling pressure from Bitcoin OGs had dropped from a 90-day average of 3,000 BTC in 2024 to 1,000 BTC as of 2026 – A 73% decline in two years.  

Source: CryptoQuant

Institutional demand surpasses mined BTC

So far, 2026’s market shifts have been positive for BTC. Notably, the massive selling pressure in late 2025 from long-term holders (Investors who held BTC for more than 5 months), ETF outflows, and excessive leverage has largely been reset. 

This has provided the structural foundation for a solid recovery. In fact, the current institutional demand for BTC is nearly five times its new supply, or the BTC miners mint. 

As of mid-January 2026, institutions have absorbed 30k BTC, way more than the freshly minted 5.7k BTC. 

Source: Bitwise

A similar trend was observed in 2025 and 2024 when ETFs debuted. In fact, JPMorgan analysts predicted that crypto inflows will surge in 2026, following a record $130 billion in 2025. The analysts wrote, 

“The rebound in institutional flows we project for 2026 is likely to be facilitated by the passage of additional crypto regulations such as the Clarity Act in the U.S., which is likely to trigger further institutional adoption of digital assets as well as fresh institutional activity.”

Will BTC’s recovery extend itself?

Here, it’s worth stating that the True MVRV, an oscillator that identifies key market cycles and investor sentiment shifts, bottomed out near 1.0 and recovered to 1.1. 

Past recovery patterns at the same level have revealed that shifts (local tops) occurred when the oscillator surged towards 1.5 (mid-range) or 2.0.

In other words, if the current recovery extends itself, it could cool off if MVRV climbs to 1.5 or 2. At press time, BTC was trading at $95.5k, up 18% from Q4 2025’s low of $80.6k. 

Source: CryptoQuant 

Final Thoughts

• Selling pressure from early Bitcoin investors who began holding over five years ago has fallen by 73%.
• Recovery could extend itself if the macro landscape supports it, but it could cool off if the True MVRV shifts at 1.5.