Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Rise with Fed Policy Shift

Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin will rise as the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet expands in 2026, although no primary sources or Cointelegraph posts confirm this prediction.

The focus on Federal Reserve policies underscores the potential impact of monetary strategies on cryptocurrency markets, raising questions about future Bitcoin price movements and investor responses.

2026 Fed Policy Shift: Impact on Bitcoin and Liquidity

Arthur Hayes anticipates the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet to expand significantly in 2026, potentially driving up Bitcoin prices. He indicates that the increase in bank loans and decline in mortgage rates could lead to expanded dollar liquidity. Despite this claim, no statements from Hayes or Cointelegraph have been found on official platforms.

Financial adjustments including the Federal Reserve’s decision to end quantitative tightening in 2025 are positioned to create abundant reserves by early 2026. Bank loans are expected to increase and mortgage rates may decrease, affecting dollar liquidity.

“For the first few months in 2026, reserves are going to grow at a relatively quick pace, anticipating fluctuations in factors that influence reserves related to tax policy. And then, after around April, reserves will start growing at a more moderate pace.” — Huberto Ennis, Economist, Richmond Fed, Richmond Fed Podcast

Bitcoin’s Historical Trends and 2026 Predictions

Did you know? The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet grew substantially from $800 billion in 2005 to $6.50 trillion by 2025, demonstrating significant liquidity impact from past quantitative easing measures.

According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at $96,159.31 with a market cap of $1.92 trillion, asserting a market dominance of 59.08%. Recent trading volumes have shifted, marking a decrease of 0.39% over the past 24 hours. Bitcoin’s price increased by 12.07% over the last 30 days. The cryptocurrency’s market performance is carefully observed amidst these predictions.

The Coincu research team highlights potential outcomes of the 2026 Fed policy, indicating shifts in financial stability. Historical analysis points to past quantitative easing cycles as influencing liquidity, though speculative impacts on Bitcoin remain unsubstantiated. However, the significant reserves post-2025 QT could affect economic conditions.