AAVE: Rise or Fall? January 13, 2026 Scenario Analysis

AAVE is experiencing horizontal consolidation at the $170.18 level and is positioned close to critical resistance levels. RSI at 59.14 is neutral-bullish, MACD is positive but Supertrend gives a bearish signal. This mixed technical picture makes both bullish and bearish scenarios equally likely; traders should be prepared for both directions and monitor trigger levels.

Current Market Situation

AAVE is currently trading at $170.18, up %1.85 in the last 24 hours, moving in the $160.82-$171.27 range. Volume is at a moderate $236.04M level, with the overall trend horizontal. Technical indicators are mixed: RSI at 59.14 is not approaching overbought territory, neutral-bullish. MACD histogram is positive, momentum in favor. Price is above EMA20 ($167.00), short-term bullish bias present. However, Supertrend is bearish and points to $179.77 resistance.

In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, 14 strong levels were identified: 1D (3 supports/2 resistances), 3D (1S/4R), 1W (2S/5R). Main supports at $167.90 (strength:77/100) and $143.63 (63/100); resistances at $171.64 (68/100), $175.23 (60/100), $206.82 (60/100). Market news flow is calm, volatility low. This setup is a sensitive point for breakout or breakdown; volume increase will be direction-determining. Access detailed data from AAVE Spot Analysis and AAVE Futures Analysis pages.

Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario

How This Scenario Unfolds?

The bullish scenario is triggered by the price breaking above the $171.64 resistance (68/100 strength) with increased volume and closing above it. This strengthens the bullish structure above short-term EMA20 ($167). If MACD positive histogram expands and RSI rises above 60, momentum increases. A quick move to $175.23 is necessary to reverse Supertrend’s bearish signal. Breaking 1D/3D resistances (total 6R) in MTF provides bullish continuation on 1W. If volume rises above $300M, general recovery in the DeFi sector (e.g., ETH rally) supports AAVE. Cancellation criterion: Closing below $167.90 support indicates a fake breakout.

Educational note: Traders should wait for ‘retest’ on resistance breakout – if price returns to support and holds after breaking, confirmation for long position. High nodes around $171 in volume profile analysis confirm breakout volume.

Target Levels

First target $175.23, then $179.77 Supertrend resistance. In strong momentum, extends to $193.30 (scenario target, 25 score) and $206.82. Risk/reward ratio: 1:3+ for entry from $167.90 (approx. $22 upside vs $2.3 risk). Watch: Fibonacci extension 1.618 ($193 area). Take profits at these levels, apply partial close strategy.

Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario

Risk Factors

The bearish scenario starts with rejection at $171.64 resistance and closing below $167.90 support (77/100 strength). Supertrend bearish signal strengthens, MACD histogram turns negative if momentum reverses. If RSI falls below 50 from 59, divergence forms. Dominant resistances in 3D/1W (9R total) in MTF increase selling pressure. If volume spikes downward ($250M+ sell-off), general market risk-off (BTC correction) triggers. Cancellation criterion: Closing above $171.64 shows bear trap.

Educational note: Watch for ‘lower high’ formation on resistance rejection – if price rises to $171 and falls, short setup. Sell imbalances in order flow confirm support breakdown.

Protection Levels

First stop below $167.90, target $150.72 (scenario bear target, 44 score). Then descent to $143.63. Risk/reward: 1:2.5 for short from $171 (approx. $20 downside vs $3 risk). Watch: 200 EMA daily ($150 area), pivot lows. Widen stop-loss or exit at these levels.

Which Scenario to Watch?

Main triggers: For bull, $171.64+ close + volume >%50 increase; For bear, $167.90- breakdown + RSI<55. Confirmation signals: Bullish – MACD crossover up, candle wicks below; Bearish – shooting star at $171, volume divergence. Market maker levels (VPVR high volume nodes $168-171) determine breakout direction. Monitor news flow: DeFi TVL increase bullish, regulation risk bearish. Invalidation clear in both scenarios: Bull cancellation below $167, Bear above $172. Traders should be prepared for both with position sizing.

Conclusion and Monitoring Notes

AAVE’s horizontal consolidation is setting the stage for a volatility explosion. Both scenarios equally likely; success lies in disciplined level tracking. Monitoring list: 1) Volume profile, 2) RSI/MACD divergence, 3) MTF alignment (1D>3D), 4) BTC correlation. Daily closes critical – don’t rush trades. Bookmark AAVE Spot and Futures pages. Verify with your own analysis, market always surprises.