Trump’s 25% tariff revives macro fears: What’s at stake for Bitcoin?

On paper, the market continues to show classic accumulation signals.

From a sentiment standpoint, the crypto Fear and Greed Index has rebounded 30 points into neutral since late November, while the TOTAL market cap has remained stuck in a sideways chop around the $3 trillion level.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin [BTC] has been range-bound near $90k over the same stretch, hinting that a base may be forming, which could set the stage for $100k, especially since January has historically favored Bitcoin upside.

Source: TradingView (BTC/USDT)

Against this setup, the latest tariff threat landed right on cue.

For context, President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran, effective immediately. And yet, BTC’s 1.2% close at $92k shows structural resilience, reinforcing ongoing accumulation signals.

Put simply, the market seems to have adapted to tariff wars.

That said, the key question remains: Is this resilience showing up on-chain? Because looking deeper at the latest round of threats, it may still be too early to interpret Bitcoin’s chop as a clean accumulation zone.

Bitcoin’s consolidation tested 

The strategic play behind this tariff move is what really matters.

From a macro view, a 25% tariff on Iran doesn’t look too significant. However, zooming in, the picture shifts. Analysts note that China is Iran’s largest trading partner, accounting for 30% of Iran’s total foreign trade.

In this context, Bitcoin LTH positioning becomes more relevant. According to Glassnode, current LTH behavior is aligned with “higher uncertainty,” a pattern that historically appears in the early stages of deeper bear markets.

Source: CryptoQuant

Against this backdrop, another LTH distribution wave can’t be ruled out.

Historically, U.S.-China trade war escalations have fueled market-wide FUD. Back in October, following Trump’s 100% tariff levy, LTH realized profits spiked above $1.5 billion, while Bitcoin suffered a 30% drawdown.

So naturally, the question is whether history is about to repeat itself.

As things stand, BTC’s near-term support level is at $80k, aligning with the average cost basis of ETF holders. However, with positioning still fragile and the tariff narrative back in play, downside risk is starting to build.

Final Thoughts

• Bitcoin continues to consolidate with sentiment improving and $80k acting as critical support. Yet on-chain metrics still signal caution.
• With tariff tensions resurfacing and positioning fragile, another distribution phase can’t be ruled out, raising the risk of a breakdown if macro FUD accelerates.