TLDR
- Peter Thiel’s hedge fund Thiel Macro sold its entire Nvidia position and 76% of its Tesla stake in Q3
- Thiel started a new position in Microsoft, which now represents 34% of his fund’s invested assets
- Microsoft reported fiscal Q4 2025 earnings of $3.65 per share on $76.44 billion revenue, up 18% year-over-year
- Azure cloud revenue grew 39% year-over-year, reaching $46.7 billion in the quarter
- Microsoft stock trades around $473, down 2% from previous close, with market cap near $3.5 trillion
Peter Thiel made waves in Q3 by dumping his entire Nvidia stake and slashing Tesla holdings by 76%. The Palantir co-founder then loaded up on Microsoft stock. The new MSFT position now accounts for 34% of Thiel Macro’s portfolio.
Microsoft Corporation, MSFT
The move raises eyebrows given Microsoft’s already massive gains. The stock has returned about 483,000% since its March 1986 IPO. Yet Thiel appears confident the tech giant has more room to run.
Microsoft stock currently trades around $473 per share. That’s down roughly 2% from the previous close. The stock sits well above its 52-week low of $345 but below its recent peak near $555.
Thiel’s exit from Nvidia comes despite the chipmaker’s dominance. Nvidia controls over 80% of the AI accelerator market. Competition from Broadcom and Marvell may have spooked Thiel. Export restrictions preventing Nvidia sales in China could also be a factor.
President Trump recently said Nvidia could sell H200 GPUs in China. That could provide an unexpected boost for the chipmaker. Tesla remains Thiel’s largest holding despite the 76% reduction.
Microsoft Stock Powers Higher on Cloud Growth
Microsoft is leveraging its enterprise software empire to cash in on AI. The company added generative AI copilots across its product lineup. Monthly active users hit 150 million in September, up from 100 million just three months earlier.
Azure ranks as the second-largest cloud provider. The platform gained roughly 3 percentage points of market share since ChatGPT launched in late 2022. Morgan Stanley’s latest CIO Survey names Azure as the cloud provider most likely to gain share over the next three years.
Microsoft stock got a boost from blockbuster fiscal Q4 2025 results. Earnings reached $3.65 per share on revenue of $76.44 billion. That represents 24% and 18% year-over-year growth respectively.
Cloud revenue hit $46.7 billion in the quarter. Azure posted 39% year-over-year growth. Management guided for mid-teens revenue growth and high-30s Azure expansion into the next quarter.
Microsoft Stock Valuation and Analyst Outlook
Microsoft stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio in the mid-30s. That premium valuation reflects expectations for continued AI and cloud growth. The company’s market cap sits at roughly $3.5 trillion.
Wall Street estimates adjusted earnings will grow 16% annually through fiscal 2027. Analyst sentiment remains strongly positive. Most ratings fall in the Buy category with price targets implying upside from current levels.
Microsoft topped consensus earnings estimates by an average of 8% over the last four quarters. Recent after-hours trading briefly pushed the valuation above $4 trillion. That placed Microsoft alongside Nvidia as an ultra-mega-cap AI leader.
Management guided for mid-teens revenue growth and high-30s Azure growth into the next quarter, with cloud revenue reaching $46.7 billion in fiscal Q4 2025.
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