Bitcoin Could Already Be Two Months Into a Bear Market

Julio Moreno pointed to Bitcoin’s sustained move below its one-year moving average as a key technical confirmation, alongside weakening network activity, profitability, demand, and liquidity metrics. Bitcoin ended 2025 lower than where it began and is trading near $88,500. Meanwhile, data from Polymarket shows restrained upside expectations for BTC, with traders assigning just a 21% probability of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 before 2027. 

Bitcoin Bear Market Signals Grow

Bitcoin may already be several weeks into a new bear market phase, according to on-chain and technical indicators tracked by CryptoQuant. During a recent episode of the Milk Road show, CryptoQuant’s head of research Julio Moreno explained that the majority of metrics used in the firm’s bull score index turned bearish in early November and have not yet shown signs of recovery.

The bull score index ranges from 0 to 100, and aggregates several indicators including network activity, investor profitability, Bitcoin demand, and market liquidity. According to Moreno, the final confirmation for him came when Bitcoin’s price fell below its one-year moving average,which is a long-term technical indicator widely used to assess broader market trends. He described this move as a clear signal that the market shifted into bearish territory, as the one-year moving average often acts as a dividing line between bull and bear cycles.

Bitcoin began 2025 trading close to $93,000 before rallying to a peak of roughly $126,080 in October. However, it ended the year lower than where it started, according to data from CoinCodex. At press time, Bitcoin was trading near $88,500, proving that momentum has weakened despite optimism from analysts who expected 2026 to be a strong growth year for the asset.

BTC’s price action over the past year (Source: CoinCodex)

Moreno believes that if the bear market thesis holds, Bitcoin could eventually bottom between $56,000 and $60,000 in the coming year. This estimate is based on Bitcoin’s realized price, which represents the average price at which current holders acquired their coins. Historically, Bitcoin prices have tended to fall back toward realized price levels during bear markets after deviating above them in bull cycles.

A decline to that range would represent a drawdown of about 55% from Bitcoin’s all-time high. Moreno explained that while this is a big drop, it would still be less severe than previous bear markets, which saw declines of 70% to 80%. In that sense, the current downturn could be viewed as comparatively mild.

He also argued that this bear market seems structurally more stable than past cycles. Unlike 2022, when the collapse of major players like Terra, Celsius Network, and FTX triggered widespread panic, the current market has not experienced similar systemic failures. Moreno also pointed to steady accumulation by institutional investors and ETFs as factors that could help cushion downside pressure and support long-term market stability.

Polymarket Traders Also Skeptical of Bitcoin Rally

Meanwhile, prediction market traders on Polymarket are showing relatively cautious expectations for Bitcoin’s price trajectory, and assigned just a 21% probability that the cryptocurrency will reach $150,000 before the end of 2026. The odds prove that there is a sense of hesitation among traders, even as many analysts argue that Bitcoin’s next major bull phase may be delayed rather than canceled.

Bitcoin’s price odds on Polymarket

According to Polymarket’s active market asking what price Bitcoin will hit before 2027, the highest confidence bet currently sits at $100,000, which traders assign an 80% probability. Beyond that level, confidence drops sharply. 

Bitcoin reaching $120,000 is priced at a 45% chance, while the probability falls to 35% at $130,000, 28% at $140,000, and just 21% at $150,000. Even $120,000 would still sit below Bitcoin’s previous all-time high.

Market participants seem to be factoring in structural changes to Bitcoin’s historical price behavior. The four-year cycle tied to halving events, which previously provided a rough framework for forecasting bull and bear markets, appears to be losing its predictive power after Bitcoin closed 2025 in negative territory. With that pattern breaking down, traders may be reassessing how much weight to give long-standing cycle-based models, opening the door for new dynamics to shape price action.

Example of BTC’s 4-year cycle

Despite subdued expectations in prediction markets, macro and regulatory developments also still fuel bullish narratives among analysts. Anticipation around President Donald Trump’s upcoming announcement of a new US Federal Reserve chair increased speculation that interest rate cuts could follow, which is a backdrop that already helped push gold and silver to record highs in late 2025. 

At the same time, proposed US crypto legislation, including the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act, is expected to provide clearer regulatory guardrails that could encourage deeper institutional participation.

Major financial institutions like Standard Chartered, Strategy, and Bernstein forecast Bitcoin reaching $150,000 in 2026, while more aggressive projections from Tom Lee of Fundstrat place long-term targets as high as $200,000 to $250,000.