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A Post-Mortem For Bitcoin’s Performance
Matt Hougan, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer, has pointed fingers at retail investors for Bitcoin’s sharp decline at the tail-end of 2025. According to Hougan, a “fast-moving retail crowd” seeking the upside of an anticipated four-year cycle triggered the decline as capital rotated out of Bitcoin.
Hougan disclosed in a recent interview that retail investors in Bitcoin took profits after a strong showing in 2025, diversifying their holdings into altcoins and other assets. For many traders, the specter of a correction after a bullish phase triggered a mass selloff, in line with Bitcoin’s historical boom-and-bust market cycles.
While previous cycles recorded declines of over 60%, Hougan noted that “persistent, slow-moving institutional buying” cushioned the effect of the drawdown. CoinMarketCap data confirmed a decline for Bitcoin from an all-time high of over $126K to under $90K within weeks.
Despite the grim end to the year, Hougan is forecasting a bullish 2026 for the largest cryptocurrency. While parabolic rallies will be rare, the Bitwise executive predicted that Bitcoin is poised for a decade-long price upswing with minimal volatility. For several pundits, a long-term rally could signal the end of the four-year cycle for digital assets.
 
“I think we’re in a 10-year grind upward of strong returns,” said Hougan. “It’s not spectacular returns but strong returns, lower volatility, some up and down.”
Trump’s Waning Power Over Bitcoin
In a CNBC interview, Hougan revealed that the chances of the Trump administration having a major impact on Bitcoin’s price are slim. He argued that the regulatory direction of the asset has become significantly clearer in 2025, with the government openly declaring support for Bitcoin.
“There’s not much more they can marginally do for Bitcoin,” said Hougan.
At the start of the year, Trump announced plans to make America “the crypto capital of the world” while establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The declarations and the legal clarity triggered Bitcoin’s early rally in 2025, with later reports of the OCC allowing banks to offer cryptocurrency services failing to trigger similar price upswings.