TLDR:
- MACD bullish crossover on three-day chart near $2,900 mirrors setup that preceded 217% rally
- Technical targets established at $4,811 for initial resistance and $8,557 as extended objective
- Net Taker Volume shows persistent futures selling pressure since mid-2023 despite price stability
- Spot market absorption neutralizes derivative aggression, preventing sustained bearish trend formation
Ethereum has registered a fresh MACD bullish crossover on the three-day chart near $2,900. Technical analysts compare this signal to a previous crossover at $1,550 that preceded a 217% rally.
Price targets now stand at $4,811 and $8,557, though market dynamics between spot and futures remain complex.
Technical Momentum Shifts After Extended Correction
Ethereum’s Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator has flipped bullish on higher timeframes. The crossover emerged following a corrective phase from recent highs.
Momentum has flattened and begun curling upward, suggesting bearish pressure may be exhausting.
The histogram transition from negative to positive territory reinforces weakening downside momentum. Price action shows consolidation patterns rather than continued decline. This behavior mirrors the setup that preceded the previous major rally.
Analyst JavonMarks noted the historical parallel in a recent post. The analyst highlighted how the last MACD crossover near $1,550 led to a surge above $4,950. That move represented a macro trend reversal rather than temporary relief.
The MACD on $ETH's chart has recorded another bullish crossover!
The last time this happened, prices were near $1,550 and they surged approximately +217% after to $4,950+.
The crossover highlighted today happened near $2,900 and we are targeting $4,811.71 then $8,557.68…… pic.twitter.com/h8EB6JwZjs
— JAVON
MARKS (@JavonTM1) January 1, 2026
The current setup appears structurally similar to the prior instance. Compression preceded the momentum flip in both cases.
Market participants now watch for expansion that typically follows such technical configurations. Higher timeframe crossovers tend to align with sustained trend changes rather than short-term volatility.
Spot Market Absorption Counters Futures Selling Pressure
Net Taker Volume data reveals aggressive selling dominance in Ethereum futures markets. The 30-day moving average has remained negative since mid-2023. This metric indicates short positions and forced long liquidations have controlled market orders.
Despite persistent futures pressure, Ethereum’s price has maintained structural stability near $3,000.
Source: Cryproquant
This divergence between derivatives flow and price action suggests underlying demand. The spot market appears to be absorbing aggressive selling from futures traders.
Carmelo Alemán analyzed this dynamic in a detailed market assessment. The analysis pointed out that futures dominate aggression but not final price direction. Spot demand acts as a counterbalance, preventing shorts from establishing sustained downtrends.
This pattern resembles Bitcoin’s behavior during historical accumulation phases. While buying pressure doesn’t show in Net Taker Volume, price stability proves its existence.
Such absorption likely originates from direct spot purchases or over-the-counter flows. The mechanism effectively neutralizes the imbalance created by derivative trading activity.
Price control remains outside the derivatives market as long as spot absorption continues. Futures traders drive short-term flow, but they cannot dictate medium-term price outcomes.
This creates an environment where derivative pressure loses effectiveness against patient demand. The $4,811 level represents the initial resistance zone if bullish momentum continues to build.
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