The crypto market has shifted toward on-chain dynamics, with on-chain factors now central to short-term price movements. In the absence of new external capital, gains are primarily driven by on-chain fund circulation and evolving overall liquidity conditions.
Following a phase of consolidation, certain on-chain fund behaviors appear to be reversing, according to CoinKarma. When the USDC/USDT premium rises above zero, it reflects diminished selling pressure from leading funds on the BTC/USDT pair, alongside a rising alignment with the market liquidity index, suggesting a potential near-term bottoming process.
Despite the near-term setup, the medium- to long-term outlook remains bearish. Traders should remain cautious about possible trend-selling pressure and continuously monitor liquidity metrics and fund-flow signals for more credible read-throughs.