Key Insights:
- MSTR stock is 5% above the $146 danger zone, with $126 and $105 below if it breaks.
- Bitcoin near the $75,000 average buy price increases the risk of unrealized losses.
- A close above $172 and then $213 is needed for MSTR stock to rebuild a bullish structure.
MicroStrategy (MSTR) is moving like a company tied directly to Bitcoin. The MSTR stock is down 62% in six months and now sits just 5% above $146. This $146 area acts like a floor. If the price falls under it, the next important areas are $126 and $105.
These are places where buyers returned during older market drops. This fall is not happening for no reason. It matches the pressure coming from Bitcoin being close to MicroStrategy’s average buy price and from large investors not adding money right now.
Bitcoin Risk Is Closing In
MicroStrategy’s average Bitcoin buy price is close to $75,000. The current Bitcoin price is not far from this number.
If Bitcoin drops even a little, parts of the company’s Bitcoin holdings will show unrealized losses again.
Analyst Joao Wedson warned that this same situation appeared in 2021, 2022, and 2023 before deeper falls in the market. That is why the current moment feels more serious than a normal price dip.
A new argument is also increasing public pressure. Peter Schiff, a well-known critic of Bitcoin, says that five years of Bitcoin buying has only created a 16% paper gain, which is around 3% per year if you spread it out.
He says this shows the plan is not working. Willy Woo, a Bitcoin analyst, said this thinking is wrong because it imagines all the Bitcoin was bought at the same price on the same day, which is not true.
This argument shows the real question for traders right now. Is Bitcoin helping MicroStrategy, or is Bitcoin now hurting MicroStrategy when prices fall?
At this moment, both ideas look possible. The chart will decide which one becomes true.
MSTR Stock Is Losing Money
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is a tool that helps us see if money is entering or leaving a stock. It has stayed below zero for many weeks.
When CMF stays under zero, it means more money is leaving the stock than entering. This usually means big investors are waiting and not buying yet. This matches the price chart, where every small rise loses force before reaching higher areas.
If the price closes below $146 while CMF stays below zero, a move toward $126 and possibly $105 becomes likely.
Even with this pressure, not every investor has left. Position data shows far more long positions than short positions. Analyst Bryant shared that large holders are still building positions quietly while the price falls. This does not promise a recovery, but it shows that confidence has not disappeared.
For a recovery to start, the market needs a real trigger. It cannot rely only on hope or long-term belief.
The Current State of MicroStrategy (MSTR)
MicroStrategy spent $22.5 billion on Bitcoin in 2025. Supporters believe the plan will succeed if Bitcoin reaches new high prices.
Critics think the company buys too quickly and too close to high prices, which makes short-term losses worse. Both views can be correct at the same time. The long-term plan may still work, but the short term may stay difficult.
For the chart to show improvement, the stock must rise above $172 and stay above that level. $172 has stopped the price many times before. If the stock can stay above $172, then the next important level is $213.
A close above $213 would be the first sign of a real trend change. Without these breaks, every rise is only a reaction and not the start of a new trend.
Right now, the MSTR stock sits in a place where belief and risk look equal. The next move on the chart will likely choose the direction.