SUI faces $80 mln unlock as sellers step in: Can bulls defend key resistance?

Layer-1 blockchain Sui has remained on the bearish side of the market, with the asset down 63.9% during this phase.

Sentiment could deteriorate further as the year draws to a close. Bears continue to gain dominance, while supply is expected to rise sharply due to additional capital inflows.

Token unlock to weigh on SUI

More Sui [SUI] tokens are set to enter circulation, according to recent unlock data.

DeFiLlama shows that the total unlock amounts to $80.41 million, representing 1.11% of SUI’s total supply and 1.48% of its circulating float.

An inflow of this magnitude is likely to pressure the asset, potentially pushing prices lower from its $1.41 level at press time.

The impact could be amplified as early contributors are scheduled to receive 0.25% of this supply, valued at roughly $12.58 million.

Early contributors are typically sellers and may view the unlock as an opportunity to exit, especially amid the prevailing bearish market sentiment.

Source: DeFilLama

If other sellers coordinate their exits, the downside move could extend further.

For now, SUI’s price action has yet to fully reflect this bearish pressure. The asset gained 3.45% over the past day. However, trading volume declined to $291.41 million, down 8.99%.

A falling volume alongside rising prices often indicates weak underlying momentum, suggesting the current upswing lacks strong conviction.

Sellers exit the market

Spot investors are already exiting positions. CoinGlass data shows a largely net outflow over the past 48 hours.

Total net outflows during this period reached $5 million, with selling activity peaking on the 27th of December.

This marks the first major outflow in over a week. The sudden shift in flows suggests investors are becoming more cautious about SUI’s long-term outlook.

Source: TradingView

From a technical perspective, SUI faces mounting pressure as it trades into a key resistance zone on the chart.

This level remains critical. A failure to break above resistance would likely send the asset back to lower price levels, further weighing on its outlook.

On the upside, a successful breakout would increase the chances of SUI reclaiming the $3.1 level, last seen on October 6 before the major liquidation cascade.

Conversely, a downside sweep remains possible, with price potentially extending toward the $1 region. This places SUI in a mid-range setup, where the next move depends on which side gains control.

Building bullish pressure

Despite the broader bearish sentiment, some indicators suggest pockets of bullish interest remain.

On-chain data shows a notable rise in total value locked (TVL), which climbed to $922.25 million over the past day.

Total inflows during this period reached $24.8 million, signaling renewed confidence among certain participants in the asset’s near-term performance.

Source: DeFiLlama

Off-chain traders are also expressing bullish bias through SUI/USDT perpetual contracts.

CoinGlass reports a simultaneous increase in long-position volumes alongside a rising positive funding rate, indicating that long traders are increasingly dominating open positions.

SUI’s near-term outlook will largely depend on the market’s directional bias in the hours leading up to the token unlock.

Final Thoughts

• A massive token unlock is expected to weigh on SUI as the asset trades near a key resistance level.
• Spot investors have begun selling their holdings, with $5 million already exiting the market.