Bitcoin’s response to major settlements remains a defining feature for risk analytics in crypto markets. The latest annual mega settlement—notional about $23.6B with a maximum pain near $96,000—illustrates how liquidity windows around expiry can foreshadow sharper post-expiry moves.
Across documented cycles, pre-expiry action commonly tightens into a narrow corridor (for example, ranges around $60,000–$70,000 ahead of the March 2024 quarterly settlement), while post-expiry gamma hedging has been associated with breakouts beyond prior highs.
These dynamics emphasize surveillance of the settlement calendar and hedging flows for Bitcoin price risk. Traders should integrate volatility and gamma hedging considerations into risk controls to avoid abrupt moves around settlement dates.
Overall, the pattern suggests a disciplined approach: monitor notional exposure, assess pre- and post-expiry price tendencies, and base decisions on verified settlement data rather than speculative scenarios.