Analyst sets date when gold will hit $10,000

As gold continues to shatter all-time highs and silver pushes toward the $70 level, legendary monetary expert Jim Rickards says the next phase of the precious metals rally could be far more explosive than many investors expect.

Speaking to Daniella Cambone on ITM Trading on December 22, Rickards said structural imbalances between paper and physical metals markets are creating the conditions for a powerful move higher, particularly if investors begin demanding physical delivery. Rickards’ comments come as investors search for a credible gold price prediction for 2026 amid rising concerns over inflation and currency debasement.

“The amount of paper gold, but this would be true of silver also, relative to the physical supply is probably 100 to one,” Rickards said. “As long as everyone’s rolling the contracts over, not demanding delivery, the market works fine.” 

However, Rickards warned that dynamic changes the moment physical demand increases. “The minute some segment of the market says, ‘You know what, give me the silver. I want physical delivery,’ all of a sudden the commodities exchanges and the custodians are saying, ‘Wait, we don’t have that much silver.’”

According to Rickards, that imbalance creates the conditions for a scramble in physical markets that paper markets cannot match. “You can never keep up with the paper side. It’s way too big,” he said. “So then you get into the dynamics of a short squeeze. That’s what’s driving it.”

From $5,000 gold to $10,000

Rickards said he has long forecast higher prices for gold, previously projecting a move to $5,000 per ounce by the end of 2026. However, recent price action has forced him to reconsider even that target.

“It would not surprise me, not even a little bit, to see $10,000 gold before the end of 2026,” Rickards said. “I like to be conservative in my written forecast because it’s good to be right. But yeah, $5,000 is within reach, but $10,000 would come as no surprise for gold.”

Rickards noted that once gold crosses certain psychological thresholds, price moves can accelerate rapidly due to basic mathematics rather than speculation.

“When you go from $3,000 to $4,000 an ounce, that’s a 33% gain,” he explained. “But when you go from $9,000 to $10,000 an ounce, that’s only 11%. That’s like a good week the way gold’s been going.”

Why the move could accelerate

The monetary expert has previously warned that sustained monetary expansion and rising sovereign debt could accelerate demand for hard assets such as gold and silver.

According to Rickards, investors often underestimate how quickly price milestones can be reached once gold enters a higher valuation regime. “People get anchored on the $1,000 benchmarks,” he said. “But each $1,000 move becomes easier than the one before because you’re working off a higher base and it’s a smaller percentage.”

He reiterated that once gold decisively clears the $4,000 level, upside constraints begin to disappear. “Once we hit $4,000 gold, the sky’s the limit,” he said.

With central banks continuing to accumulate gold and concerns mounting around currency debasement, Rickards believes the structural case for precious metals remains intact. While his written forecasts remain conservative, his latest comments suggest that gold’s next leg higher may arrive faster than many expect.