Breakout Faces First Real Test As Momentum Pushes Into Resistance

• ZEC broke out of its short-term descending channel and flipped Supertrend, shifting near-term structure in favor of buyers.
• Price is testing heavy resistance near $460–$480, where prior rallies have failed and EMA pressure remains active.
• Rising shielded supply and network upgrades support long-term conviction, but momentum must hold above $420 to avoid a false breakout.

Zcash price today trades near $452, extending its recent recovery after breaking out of a short-term descending channel. The move places buyers back in control near a critical resistance zone, but follow-through now matters.

Breakout From Descending Channel Resets Short-Term Structure

On the 2-hour chart, ZEC has cleanly exited the descending channel that guided price lower through early December. That break coincided with a Supertrend flip near $418, which marked the first structural signal that sellers were losing control. Since then, price has built higher lows and accelerated toward the $450–$460 zone.

RSI on the same timeframe has pushed toward 70, reflecting strong upside momentum rather than exhaustion. This matters. During the prior downtrend, RSI consistently failed below 60. The current regime shift suggests buyers are willing to chase strength, not fade it.

Still, this is the first real test. Breakouts that fail near resistance often retrace quickly. Buyers now need to defend the $430–$420 region to preserve the new structure.

Daily Chart Shows Compression Into EMA Resistance

Zooming out to the daily chart, ZEC remains below a heavy EMA cluster despite the rally. The 20-day EMA sits near $423, with the 50-day around $416. Above that, the 100-day EMA near $346 and the 200-day near $245 define the broader bullish slope that emerged during the November expansion.

Price is currently pressing into the upper Bollinger Band near $480. This band has capped advances since the late-November peak. Previous attempts into this zone triggered sharp pullbacks, which means buyers cannot rely on momentum alone.

The pattern resembles a tightening triangle resolution rather than a clean trend reversal. The market has shifted from liquidation to compression. Direction will be decided by how ZEC behaves near $460–$480.

Shielded Supply Growth Adds A Structural Undercurrent

Beyond price, on-chain structure continues to diverge from sentiment. Shielded ZEC supply has climbed to record highs, now representing roughly 29% of circulating supply. This reflects steady migration into shielded addresses, even during periods of price underperformance.

While critics frame this as capital being locked away, the data tells a different story. Shielded balances rising during volatile phases often signal long-term conviction rather than speculative churn. Historically, sustained increases in shielded supply have preceded periods of tighter liquid supply.

This backdrop does not guarantee upside, but it reduces downside reflexivity. When fewer coins remain readily available, sell pressure tends to thin during corrections.

Zebra 3.1.0 Strengthens Network Foundations

Fundamentally, Zcash has also seen meaningful infrastructure progress. The release of Zebra 3.1.0 marks another step in the transition toward a modern Rust-based node stack.

The update improves Docker support across ARM64 and AMD64 architectures, resolving long-standing compatibility friction for Apple Silicon and cloud deployments. Automatic multi-architecture image selection simplifies node operations and lowers operational errors.

Zebra 3.1.0 also introduces a mempool dust filter, blocking transactions with negligible outputs. This reduces spam pressure and lowers resource strain for operators. RPC improvements further enhance data access, allowing developers and monitoring tools to query large datasets more efficiently.

These changes do not drive short-term prices, but they matter for durability. Strong infrastructure tends to show up in price later, not immediately.

Regulatory Tone Shifts Improve Risk Perception

Sentiment has also benefited from improving regulatory optics. The U.S. SEC Privacy Roundtable on December 15 marked a notable shift, acknowledging privacy as a legitimate financial feature rather than a default red flag.

For Zcash, this matters directly. Shielded transactions sit at the core of the protocol’s value proposition. Reduced delisting risk and clearer regulatory framing have eased one of the market’s biggest overhangs.

Institutional interest has followed. Cypherpunk Technologies’ $68 million ZEC treasury acquisition reinforces the idea that professional investors are willing to hold ZEC outright, not just trade it.

Still, caution remains warranted. Some market participants, including Raoul Pal, have flagged the recent rally as potential capital rotation rather than a confirmed structural breakout. That distinction will be resolved by relative performance over the coming weeks.

Outlook: Will Zcash Go Up?

ZEC is at an inflection point.

• Bullish case: A daily close above $480, followed by acceptance above $500, would confirm a clean breakout and open the path toward the $600–$650 region. Holding above $430 during pullbacks keeps momentum intact.
• Bearish case: Failure to clear $480, followed by a drop back below $420, would signal a false breakout and shift focus toward $390–$370 support.