Bitcoin – Could 2026 be an ‘off year’ for BTC’s price?

Bitcoin [BTC] continues to trade below its 2025 opening level of approximately $93,576, while overall momentum across the cryptocurrency market has slowed as the year gradually draws to a close.

As the new year approaches, analysts are weighing the likelihood that Bitcoin may extend its sluggish performance, with the possibility that prices could decline further rather than recover.

Bitcoin winter still in play

Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, one of the largest mutual fund firms in the United States, has suggested that 2026 could represent an “off year” for Bitcoin.

His assessment is based on BTC’s historical four-year halving cycle. According to Timmer, the asset could retreat to a support range between $65,000 and $75,000 next year if the cycle continues to play out as it has in the past.

The four-year halving cycle he referenced reflects a prolonged rally phase, roughly 145 months in this case, after a reduction in Bitcoin miners’ rewards.

Historically, this phase has often been followed by a broader market decline, as illustrated in long-term price charts.

Source: Fidelity

Timmer noted that Bitcoin’s all-time high of $126,000 in October aligned “perfectly in both price and time” with this historical framework.

Fidelity Investments, through its FBTC U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), controls the second-largest Bitcoin ETF supply in the U.S. market.

FBTC holds Bitcoin valued at $16.73 billion, according to CoinGlass data, trailing only BlackRock’s IBIT ETF, which holds $65.57 billion.

If the bearish outlook holds, it could imply significant sell-offs from this cohort of Bitcoin investors. However, FBTC investors have so far shown bullish behavior this week, recording a net inflow of 179 BTC, equivalent to roughly $15.7 million.

Minimal demand in the market

The broader market has yet to witness sustained demand and has instead experienced more reshuffling than genuine accumulation capable of driving prices higher.

This dynamic helps explain why Bitcoin has remained range-bound between $85,000 and $93,000. The clarification follows a Glassnode analysis addressing reports that Bitcoin “sharks”, wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC, had increased their holdings by 270,000 BTC.

Glassnode later clarified that the activity did not reflect true accumulation. Instead, it stemmed from large Bitcoin entities, those holding more than 100,000 BTC, undergoing internal wallet reshuffling.

Source: Glassnode

A senior analyst at Glassnode explained:

“Wallet reshuffling occurs when large entities split or merge balances across addresses to manage custody, risk, or accounting, shifting coins between cohort size brackets without changing true ownership.”

While large-entity supply shifted by roughly 300,000 BTC, about 270,000 BTC appeared in shark wallets.

However, the data ultimately showed a net negative balance of around 30,000 BTC, suggesting that these investors likely sold Bitcoin rather than accumulated it.

Regulatory and global context

Investor caution has intensified as the year winds down, driven by a series of regulatory and macroeconomic developments across major economies.

In the United States, the policy outlook has turned more dovish following Federal Open Market Committee rate cuts. Similar moves have been observed in Europe. However, capital outflows linked to rising Japanese bond yields have weighed on Bitcoin sentiment.

These policy shifts and uncertainties have left markets undecided on whether to deploy capital or remain on the sidelines.

Ray Youssef, CEO of the crypto super app NoOnes, provided additional context on the current environment in an email. He said,

“Divergent signals from major sovereign banks, uneven global policy coordination, and mixed guidance on 2026 rate and liquidity pathways have prompted capital to adopt a wait-and-see approach as the year ends.”

Meanwhile, Jerome de Tychey, President of Ethereum France, told AMBCrypto that he expects crypto markets to increasingly align with traditional financial markets.

“With ETFs and institutional participation growing, crypto-specific corrections are less probable, but correlation with global markets will increase.”

That shift may reduce crypto’s standing as a pure inflation hedge. Still, proponents argue that the continued adoption of blockchain-based financial infrastructure remains a positive long-term development for the sector.

Final Thoughts

• Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro has pointed to Bitcoin trailing its traditional four-year cycle, describing 2026 as a potential “off year” or winter period.
• Bitcoin demand remains weak, with market activity driven more by internal rotations than by genuine new purchases.