Retail traders continue to expect lower prices across the crypto market, according to new data from Santiment.
Mentions of “lower” and “below” remain significantly higher than calls for “higher” or “above,” indicating that the majority of the crowd is positioning for further downside.
Source: Santiment
Santiment highlights several key inflection points over the past week:
- Dec. 9: Retail demanded a “higher” move, and the rally immediately stalled.
- Dec. 10: Dip-buyers were still bullish, but price momentum had already weakened.
- Dec. 15–16: Sentiment flipped sharply bearish, with a surge in fear-driven commentary and expectations of more downside.
Historically, Santiment notes that when retail traders capitulate, markets tend to stabilize — especially if selling pressure dries up and larger players remain patient.
Fear & Greed Index confirms widespread fear in crypto
Supporting the Santiment data, the latest Fear & Greed Index from CoinMarketCap shows the market sitting at 22 [“Fear”], one of the lowest readings since November’s capitulation event.
- Yesterday: 24 [Fear]
- Last week: 25 [Fear]
- Last month: 18 [Extreme Fear]
On the longer-term chart, these low sentiment levels coincide with previous local bottoms where Bitcoin eventually recovered. Extreme fear has historically aligned with periods of undervaluation or market overreaction, rather than the start of deeper declines.
Source: CoinMarketCap
This creates a compelling divergence:
- Sentiment is collapsing
- Price is falling, but not at the same extreme rate
- The combination often signals emotional exhaustion rather than renewed bearish strength.
What this could mean for BTC and crypto
Bitcoin’s price remains under pressure, dipping below $87,000 again after last week’s failed breakout attempt.
Momentum indicators, including the Choppiness Index, show elevated range-bound conditions — suggesting declining trend strength rather than a sustained breakdown.
If retail continues expecting lower prices while sentiment readings reach historical fear zones, the probability of a short-term price stabilization or relief rally increases.
As long as broader macro conditions remain steady and large holders do not accelerate distribution, the market may be approaching its sentiment floor.
Final Thoughts
- Retail sentiment is deeply bearish, often marking late-stage selloffs rather than the start of major downtrends.
- Historical fear readings suggest the market may be closer to a rebound than traders expect.