Cardano whales accumulate as retail dumps — Is a major ADA reversal brewing?

Fresh on-chain data suggests Cardano’s price decline may be masking a much larger shift underway. 

While ADA has spent the last two months trending downward, its largest holders are doing the opposite — quietly accumulating.

Cardano whales accumulate while retail capitulates

Santiment data shows a clear behavioural divide:

• 100,000–100 million ADA wallets: Accumulated +26,770 ADA since 1 November
• Retail wallets [<100 ADA]: Dumped –44,751 ADA in the same period

This dynamic, large holders absorbing supply while smaller traders sell, is historically one of the strongest long-term signals for ADA. It often appears near the exhaustion point of bearish cycles.

Source: Santiment

ADA price still weak despite accumulation

Despite this bullish accumulation trend, ADA’s price structure remains under pressure. The asset trades near $0.40, still locked in a series of lower highs and lower lows.

Source: TradingView

The RSI sits near 40, reflecting weak momentum but also suggesting sellers are losing strength. ADA’s chart shows no breakdown in mid-term support levels, but buyers have yet to reclaim control.

For now, price and fundamentals are moving in opposite directions.

Why this divergence matters

Historically, ADA has rallied when:

• Smart money increases holdings,
• Retail becomes fearful, and
• Bitcoin stabilises.

Santiment highlights that major accumulation in ADA tends to matter most after Bitcoin calms following a period of volatility.

With BTC still reacting to macro conditions and post-FOMC uncertainty, Cardano may be in a holding pattern until broader sentiment steadies.

Large holders buying into weakness suggests confidence in ADA’s longer-term trajectory — whether driven by staking yields, anticipated network updates, or valuation resets after a multi-month decline.

Retail behaviour, in contrast, reflects short-term capitulation — often a late-stage development in downtrends.

What comes next for ADA?

If Bitcoin finds stability and market liquidity improves, ADA’s whale accumulation could serve as the early foundation for a trend reversal. Until then, accumulation continues quietly beneath the surface, even as price movement remains muted.

Final Thoughts

• Whale accumulation, paired with retail selling, has historically preceded ADA recoveries, signalling that informed capital may be positioning itself early.
• ADA’s price remains weak, so confirmation requires market stability.