Bitcoin (BTC) remains under pressure as the market heads into a pivotal Federal Reserve meeting, with traders closely watching whether the macro environment will finally deliver the catalyst needed for a decisive move.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency is trading near $90,700, holding within a tight range as inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs cool compared to previous weeks.
Bitcoin Holds Below Key Resistance Amid Slowing ETF Inflows
Bitcoin continues to struggle against the $93,000–$94,000 resistance zone, an area that has capped upside attempts throughout late November and early December. Analyst Ted (@TedPillows) noted that “$BTC is still consolidating around the $90,000 level… ETF inflows have slowed down, which is the reason Bitcoin is unable to break above the $93,000–$94,000 level.”
Bitcoin holds near $90K as slowing ETF inflows and an upcoming FOMC decision keep the price locked below the $93K–$94K breakout zone. Source: @TedPillows via X
Recent ETF flow data from issuers tracked by Farside Investors shows that spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $60 million in net outflows on December 8, marking a notable cooldown after heavy inflows during October and November. Products such as the Fidelity Bitcoin ETF, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, and the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust have been key institutional access points for BTC throughout 2025, making flow trends an important gauge of sentiment.
Despite weakening inflows, the broader market structure remains neutral. Bitcoin continues to oscillate between $88,000 and $90,000 support, an area confirmed by earlier liquidity clusters visible on multiple heatmap tools from platforms such as Coinglass and Hyblock. These areas often represent concentrations of stop orders or highly traded price zones, helping explain why Bitcoin continues to stabilize there.
With the Federal Reserve set to announce its final interest rate decision of the year tomorrow, volatility is expected to pick up across risk assets. According to CME FedWatch data, markets are pricing in a 25-bps rate cut, which would shift the federal funds target range to 3.50%–3.75%, its lowest level since mid-2023.
2021 Cycle Comparison Sparks Discussions of a Potential Rally Toward $105K
A new analysis circulating on X compares the 2025 Bitcoin price structure to the 2021 cycle, highlighting a similar double-top formation followed by a rebound. Analyst Ted notes that “Bitcoin seems to be mimicking the 2021 cycle,” suggesting that if the pattern holds, Bitcoin could rally toward the $100,000–$105,000 zone before entering a deeper correction. His shared TradingView chart illustrates key similarities: the 2021 double top near $60K versus the 2025 double top near $108K, with the current market consolidating around $90K–$91K and respecting overlapping support zones.
Bitcoin is repeating its 2021 double-top pattern, hinting at a potential rally toward $100K–$105K before the next correction. Source: @TedPillows via X
However, market opinions are divided. Some traders see room for a quick dip toward $87,700 before a push toward $112K, while others argue that the traditional four-year cycle is losing relevance due to shifting macro liquidity and expanding institutional participation. Research firms like Bernstein remain firmly bullish, projecting $150K in 2026, $200K in 2027, and even a potential run toward $1 million by 2033, largely driven by growing ETF demand and Bitcoin’s declining liquid supply. Together, these contrasting views highlight how ongoing institutional involvement is reshaping Bitcoin’s long-term narrative compared to previous cycles.
Technical Levels to Watch: Range Trading Dominates
TradingView analyst tradecitypro notes that Bitcoin has entered a “ranging box,” reflecting a lack of clear momentum in either direction. Their price map outlines several key triggers: “After the fake move we had yesterday, today Bitcoin has entered a ranging box… Given the trend weakness, the price could not stabilize above 91,447 and dropped again to 89,849.”
Bitcoin is stuck in a choppy range as false breakouts at 89849 and 91447 show no clear trend, leaving both long and short setups on the table. Source: tradecitypro on TradingView
In traditional TA terms, the “fake move” refers to a brief breakout above resistance that failed to hold, often a sign that market liquidity was insufficient to sustain a trend. Such deviations are common in low-momentum environments, where both buyers and sellers are hesitant ahead of major catalysts like the FOMC.
Looking Ahead: Can Bitcoin Reclaim $94K Before the FOMC?
Bitcoin’s next move hinges on a combination of ETF flows, macro conditions, and the Fed’s communication tone. Should inflows strengthen and markets interpret the Fed as supportive of risk assets, BTC may again test the $93,000–$94,000 resistance zone, an essential hurdle before revisiting six-figure targets.
Bitcoin was trading at around 93,084, up 3.7% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: coingecko
Conversely, sustained ETF outflows or a hawkish Fed outlook could trigger a retest of the $88,000–$89,000 support range, extending Bitcoin’s consolidation phase and potentially inviting additional short setups.