Bulls Eye Breakout Toward $160 As Derivatives Expand Sharply

• Solana tests a two-month trendline near $140, with major EMAs above price keeping the structure corrective rather than bullish.
• Spot flows turn positive with $5.53M in inflows, while derivatives activity surges as traders take leveraged long exposure.
• A breakout above $140-$146 shifts targets toward $160-$163, while failure risks a return to $134 and possibly $128.

Solana price today trades near $139 up 5.5%, extending a rebound that started from the $128 zone earlier in the week. The recovery is attempting to break a two-month descending trendline, but price remains capped beneath a cluster of moving averages that have acted as resistance throughout the downtrend. 

Trendline Rejection Limits Recovery Attempts

On the 4-hour chart, Solana is pressing against the falling trendline near $140, a barrier that has rejected every upside attempt since October. The current move represents the third retest of this line in the past two weeks, showing consistent buying interest but also consistent supply at higher levels.

Price sits above the 20-day EMA at $134.93 and the 50-day EMA at $135.65, which now act as short-term support. The 100-day EMA at $137.53 is being tested intraday, while the 200-day EMA at $145.98 remains the major reversal barrier. Until price clears the 200-day EMA, the structure remains corrective rather than trend-shifting.

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Parabolic SAR shows buyers attempting to control momentum, but previous instances of SAR flips have failed to generate sustained trend reversals. The technical setup therefore reflects attempted recovery inside a broader downtrend, not a confirmed breakout.

Intraday Momentum Shows Strength But Needs Follow-Through

On the 1-hour chart, Solana has reclaimed the Supertrend flip zone at $134.33, turning it into short-term support. The recent rally pushed price into the $139 range with accelerating candles, and RSI briefly touched overbought levels, showing momentum rather than drift.

RSI is currently near 68, which leaves room for continuation but also increases the probability of rejection at resistance if volume stalls. Intraday traders will need a clean close above $140 to sustain a breakout attempt toward the 200-day EMA. A failure at this level would likely draw price back toward $135-$134, where support will be tested.

The current structure favors upside attempts with shallow pullbacks, but the trendline overhead keeps any move fragile until confirmed.

Spot Flows Improve But Remain Modest

Spot flows have turned positive, although magnitude remains modest. Solana recorded approximately $5.53 million in net inflows on December 8, reversing a week of mostly negative prints. 

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The flow shift helps explain the rebound from $128, but the size of the inflows is small relative to previous accumulation phases, where inflows frequently exceeded $50 million per session.

Derivatives Show Expansion As Traders Position For Upside

Derivatives data shows a clear shift in positioning. Solana futures open interest rose 1.24 percent to $7.27 billion, while volume surged 131.72 percent to $16.35 billion, confirming that leveraged traders are active again. Options markets also saw sharp increases, with options volume rising 285.88 percent and options open interest up 20.90 percent.

Position bias remains net long, with multiple exchanges showing ratios above 2.5:1, and Binance accounts showing a 3.23 ratio. The broad long bias suggests traders are attempting to front-run a breakout rather than hedge downside.

Liquidation data reinforces that skew. Across 12 hours, Solana recorded $8.93 million in liquidations, with shorts absorbing most of the losses. That positioning flush likely enabled price to push above near-term resistance.

On-Chain Activity Supports Narrative Strength