- Federal Reserve to cut rates by less than 75 bps by 2026.
- Causes a higher-for-longer rate environment.
- Impacts BTC and ETH with macro implications.
On December 8, market sources revealed that traders anticipate the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by less than 75 basis points by the end of 2026.
This signals a long-term, higher rate environment affecting risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, by maintaining elevated real yields and tightening liquidity.
Federal Reserve Plans Minimal Rate Adjustments by 2026
Federal Reserve projections indicate less than 75 basis points of rate cuts by 2026, suggesting a structurally higher-for-longer environment for interest rates. This shift impacts trading strategies across the financial sector, with interest focusing on the Federal Open Market Committee’s projections led by Jerome Powell. Futures markets have adjusted expectations accordingly.
“In the latest SEP, FOMC participants project the federal funds rate declining gradually through 2026, not returning to the pre-2022 zero-rate regime.” — Jerome Powell, Chair, Federal Reserve (Federal Reserve SEP)
Reactions from the cryptocurrency space highlight concerns about diminishing liquidity and rising borrowing costs. While official quotes vary, some industry insiders argue the reluctance to lower rates could limit growth in DeFi and long-duration crypto assets. However, figures like Arthur Hayes suggest such conditions could become eventually supportive for Bitcoin.
Crypto Market Dynamics Amid Higher Rate Environment
Did you know? The last major high-rate environment in 2017–2018 saw a substantial impact on cryptocurrencies, leading to a lengthy bear market following a peak driven by tightened monetary policy.
According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin (BTC) is valued at $89,910.18, with a market cap of formatNumber(1794549587702, 2) and dominance of 58.27%. Recent trading volume reported a 56.59% decrease to formatNumber(59601334714, 2) in the last 24 hours. BTC price changed by 0.45% in 24 hours, and -11.60% over 30 days, suggesting ongoing volatility.
Coincu research indicates prolonged high rates create macroeconomic challenges, with potential increased regulatory scrutiny on crypto leverage and stablecoins. Historical trends show that crypto markets respond strongly to rate expectations, affecting developer activity and funding in the industry.
| DISCLAIMER: The information on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to do your own research before investing. |
Source: https://coincu.com/markets/federal-reserve-rate-cuts-2026/