According to COINOTAG News citing a China Finance Research Report, the baseline scenario contemplates that a Fed Chair leadership could trigger an initial pullback in U.S. bond yields and the U.S. dollar, with the stock market potentially gaining as monetary expectations stabilise, provided the central bank preserves policy independence.
From a timeline perspective, the report notes that in early 2026 the nomination process would unfold: nomination as a Fed Governor, Senate confirmation, then nomination as Chair and a second confirmation, with May 2026 marking the likely transition ahead of the June FOMC meeting.
In the first quarter, markets could react if the new chair appears somewhat dovish; yields and the dollar may exhibit volatility. However, a credible independence stance and a recovering economy could guide the trajectory toward stabilisation and a measured firming of financial conditions.