TLDR:
- Galaxy says crypto DAT firms are entering a Darwinian phase driven by collapsing premiums and strained liquidity conditions.
- Treasury stocks dropped harder than BTC as high-beta structures flipped and amplified downside during the deleveraging.
- Unrealized losses widened as firms like Metaplanet saw heavy swings from profits to deep underwater positions.
- Galaxy says premium compression removed the issuance flywheel that powered 2025’s aggressive BTC accumulation phase.
Bitcoin treasury companies are facing their sharpest reset since the model emerged. Galaxy Research says the sector has entered a turning point as equity premiums collapse and liquidity tightens.
The shift follows a steep BTC drawdown and a dramatic reversal in issuance dynamics. Treasury firms that relied on premium-driven accumulation loops are now navigating compressed valuations and rising losses.
Galaxy Says Crypto DAT Firms Face Pressure As Premiums Collapse
Galaxy Research detailed how the digital asset treasury model depended on stocks trading above their bitcoin net asset value. Those premiums supported the loop of issuance and accumulation that carried these firms through early 2025.
The cycle broke after BTC fell from October highs near 126000 dollars to recent levels around 92000 dollars. Galaxy linked the pressure to the Oct. 10 deleveraging event, which triggered forced liquidations and drained spot liquidity.
The firm noted how Strategy, Metaplanet, Semler Scientific, and Nakamoto absorbed steep equity drawdowns during the reset. Their valuations dropped harder than BTC as the high beta of treasury stocks worked in reverse.
Galaxy reported that Nakamoto saw a near total wipeout as its stock plunged more than 98 percent. The report compared this pattern to memecoin-style collapses during sharp liquidity contractions.
Unrealized losses have widened across the sector. Metaplanet’s dashboard showed a swing from more than 600 million dollars in unrealized gains to over 530 million dollars in unrealized losses as of December 1.
Galaxy highlighted how firms with average BTC costs above 107000 dollars are now deep in the red. The reversal reflects how leveraged equity structures magnify downside once premiums vanish.
Premiums to NAV have also compressed across Strategy, Metaplanet, and Semler Scientific. Galaxy’s updated tables show that valuations once trading at heavy premiums now sit near or below underlying BTC exposure. The firm said the change removes the issuance advantage that powered early 2025 accumulation.
Galaxy Says Crypto DAT Firms Now Enter A “Darwinian Phase”
Galaxy warned that the first phase of the treasury trade is over. Stocks trading below NAV can no longer issue accretively, shifting the model from expansion to defense.
The firm outlined three possible paths: prolonged discounts, selective survival, and optional upside during the next BTC cycle. Galaxy added that balance-sheet strength will determine which firms endure the downturn.
The sector is now undergoing a stress test. Firms that issued heavily at cycle highs or layered debt on BTC holdings face elevated pressure.
Galaxy said Strategy moved early by building a 1.44 billion dollar cash reserve to cover obligations for at least a year. The change signals a focus on liquidity management rather than pure BTC accumulation.
Galaxy noted that treasury stocks may recover premiums if BTC hits new all-time highs. But boards will face scrutiny over their execution during this downturn. Galaxy described BTC treasury stocks as path-dependent instruments shaped by timing and issuance choices.
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Source: https://blockonomi.com/dat-premiums-vanish-as-galaxy-warns-of-a-darwinian-shakeout/