Pittsburgh Pirates starter Cody Ponce pitches against the Chicago Cubs during a baseball game, Tuesday, May 25, 2021, in Pittsburgh. (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)
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No one can accuse the Toronto Blue Jays of sulking in the corner following their utterly devastating seven-game World Series loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers. They’ve been the most visible team in the early stages of free agency, signing prized free agent starter Dylan Cease – considered by many to be the best arm available – to a seven-year, $210 million deal, and have now followed it by inking righty starter Cody Ponce to a three-year, $30 million contract.
To which all but very serious baseball fans might respond – “Who the heck is Cody Ponce?”
Well, Cody Ponce was the Brewers’ 2nd round pick out of Cal Poly in 2015. He got to the big leagues with the Pirates a few years later and had absolutely zero success, going 1-7, 5.86, in 55 1/3 innings over two seasons. To his credit, Ponce didn’t give up. He took his act overseas in 2022, and pitched the next three seasons in Japan.
Where he didn’t fare well, either. He went 10-16, 4.54, in 202 innings from 2022-24. But Ponce still wasn’t done. He pitched in Korea in 2025, and everything came together. Like 17-1, 1.89, 252/41 K/BB in 180 2/3 IP better. And it wasn’t just the numbers – after all, the KBO isn’t considered to be as strong a league as the NPB. He threw his fastball considerably harder, allowing his breaking stuff to play up, and added an out pitch changeup to his mix.
You still might think, guaranteeing $10 million per year to a soon-to-be 32-year-old with virtually zero MLB experience, who has merely one strong KBO season under his belt after years of struggles, might not be a wise decision.
Well, Merrill Kelly followed a similar path and has perennially outperformed his contract since returning to the states. Erick Fedde’s career virtually mirrors Ponce’s, and while he hasn’t been as good as Kelly, he still was a clearly cost-effective signing upon his return.
Which brings us to perhaps the largest macro-level point about this signing. There are virtually no bargains in free agency. The remaining top starting pitchers on the free agent market are Framber Valdez, Ranger Suarez, Michael King and NPB vet Tatsuya Imai. Maybe Imai’s salary will turn out to be a bargain, but there’s also a posting fee involved. Valdez, Suarez and King are going to get PAID, and there are question marks attached to all of them.
Ponce, on the other hand, could be a huge bargain. If he’s even a league average starter, he could be worth twice his salary. If he’s better than that…….well, kudos to the Jays for taking the chance.
Their rotation is looking exceptionally deep, with Cease, Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage and Shane Bieber along with Ponce, and Jose Berrios and Eric Lauer as insurance. The Jays are likely also looking to add to their position player group, potentially with another high end free agent or two. They’ve tried to throw their financial weight around in recent off-seasons, only to be too often left at the altar. Their exceptional October performance seems to have had some interesting side effects – their final stage negotiation calls are getting returned, and deals are getting closed. The rest of the strong AL East should be concerned.