DXY slides below 99 amid softer US data – DBS

The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell below 99 as weak ADP payrolls and easing ISM prices reinforce expectations of a December Fed rate cut.

Markets fully price 25-bps Fed cut in December

“The DXY broke below 99 and is close to returning all the gains triggered by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s late-October remark that a December cut was ‘not a forgone conclusion’.”

“The futures market is fully pricing a 25-bps cut at the December 10FOMC meeting, betting that US labour-market softness will outweigh tariff-driven inflation next week. The ADP data showed private payrolls falling 32k in November against expectations for a slower decline to 10K from 47k in October.”

“Although ISM Services edged higher to 52.6 in November from 52.4 in October, the prices paid index fell sharply to 65.4 from 70, while new orders eased to 52.9 from 56.2. The DXY’s next support level is the 98.6 low from October 28.”