The AUD/USD pair prolongs its strong uptrend witnessed over the past two weeks or so and advances to a fresh high since late October during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices stick to gains following the release of Australian trade balance data, with bulls looking to build on the momentum further beyond the 0.6600 mark amid a supportive fundamental backdrop.
Data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed that the country’s trade surplus widened to A$4,385 million MoM in October, compared to A$3,938 million in the previous month. Additional details showed that exports rose 3.4% vs 7.9% in September, while imports registered a growth of 2% during the reported month. The immediate market reaction, however, turns out to be muted as diminishing odds for more policy easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continue to underpin the Aussie and act as a tailwind for the AUD/USD pair.
On Wednesday, RBA Governor Michele Bullock admitted that inflation is not yet sustainably back within the central bank’s 2% to 3% target band. Furthermore, Bullock warned that if the price pressure turns out to be permanent, it would have implications for the future path of monetary policy. Traders further pared their bets for an RBA rate cut next week, instead now see a greater chance that the central bank will hike rates next year. This marks a significant divergence in comparison to dovish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations and favors the AUD/USD bulls.
In fact, traders are now pricing in a nearly 90% probability that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs next week amid signs of a gradual cooling of the US economy. Adding to this, speculations about a dovish successor of Fed Chair Jerome Powell keep the US Dollar (USD) depressed near its lowest level in over one month, which turns out to be another factor that acts as a tailwind for the AUD/USD pair. Furthermore, the bullish tone around the equity markets undermines the safe-haven buck and validates the positive outlook for the risk-sensitive Aussie.
Economic Indicator
Trade Balance (MoM)
The trade balance released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the difference in the value of its imports and exports of Australian goods. Export data can give an important reflection of Australian growth, while imports provide an indication of domestic demand. Trade Balance gives an early indication of the net export performance. If a steady demand in exchange for Australian exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.
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