A fresh wave of on-chain analysis is circulating in the market as Alphractal highlights what it calls one of Bitcoin’s cleanest historical indicators: the crossover between Short-Term Holder (STH) and Long-Term Holder (LTH) realized prices.
According to the platform, this relationship has consistently mapped every major bear market ending and every bull market beginning across Bitcoin’s history.
Rather than relying on sentiment swings or speculative narratives, the signal focuses exclusively on cost-basis behavior. The logic is straightforward – when short-term holders capitulate and their realized price drops beneath that of long-term holders, the market enters deep value territory.
Once short-term cost bases climb back above those of long-term holders, new demand takes over and a sustained uptrend begins.
The Bear Market only ends when the STH Realized Price crosses below the LTH Realized Price.
And the Bull Market begins when the STH Realized Price crosses back above it.**
This is one of the cleanest and most reliable cycle signals in Bitcoin.
No guessing.
No “market vibes.”… pic.twitter.com/l5czUyjrKt— Alphractal (@Alphractal) December 2, 2025
How the End of Bear Markets Has Historically Formed
Alphractal’s data shows that the bear market phase concludes exactly when the STH realized price falls below the LTH realized price. This pattern reflects widespread capitulation among newer market participants.
Short-term holders abandon their positions at losses, speculative excess gets flushed out, and the market stabilizes into an accumulation zone dominated by long-term investors.
Analysts have long noted that these moments coincide with cycle lows, where selling pressure exhausts and the groundwork for recovery begins.
What Signals the Start of a Bitcoin Bull Market
The platform defines the beginning of a bull cycle as the point where STH realized price crosses back above LTH realized price.
This shift suggests that new capital has re-entered the market, traders are actively raising their cost basis, and momentum is decisively turning upward. Historically, Bitcoin has entered strong multi-month or multi-year rallies following this crossover.
The charts provided by Alphractal, spanning multiple cycles, show each of these moments with consistent clarity.
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Source: https://coindoo.com/bitcoin-sends-a-powerful-market-trigger-history-shows-what-comes-next/