 
 
MicroStrategy (MSTR) is under scrutiny as Bitcoin’s slide fuels speculation that the company may eventually need to liquidate part of its massive BTC holdings.
The concern intensified, as data shared on X highlighted that MSTR is now down 51% since launching its first preferred series in February. As such, market watchers are questioning whether a forced sale is becoming more likely.
Messari expanded on this debate in a new report. The analysis examines the company’s fixed obligations, its reliance on at-the-market (ATM) offerings, and the game-theoretic dynamics that could determine whether, or when, MSTR might be pushed to sell Bitcoin.
According to the report, the scenario revolves not only around market conditions but also around how long the company can use equity issuance and debt structures to sustain its strategy.
Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts warn that MSTR may face up to $8.8 billion in forced stock selling if MSCI removes the company from its global indices due to its heavy BTC concentration.
 
MSCI is currently consulting on rules that would exclude firms whose digital assets represent at least half of total assets, and MSTR exceeds that threshold by a wide margin.
The index provider will deliver a final decision by January 15, 2026, and analysts say the proposal has already contributed to MSTR’s 67% drop from its November 2024 high and 56% decline over six months.
JPMorgan believes the fallout from removal would be severe, potentially impacting the company’s liquidity, market value, and ability to raise capital. While active managers are not required to follow index changes, the reputational hit alone could affect future debt and equity offerings.
Executive Chairman Michael Saylor argues the company remains an operating software business generating $500 million annually, emphasizing its digital lending services and pointing to its recent $835 million Bitcoin acquisition as evidence of unwavering commitment.
At press time, MSTR holds 649,870 BTC, worth roughly $56 billion at current prices. But as Bitcoin falls and MSTR’s market-cap-to-BTC ratio collapses to 1.1×, analysts fear the cushion that once supported new capital raises is thinning.