Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a strong recovery since last night, reaching above $93,000. However, before this recovery, BTC experienced a sharp correction to the $83,000 level.
While Bitcoin is experiencing a rapid recovery, famous economist Timothy Peterson revealed an interesting situation regarding the BTC price.
At this point, Peterson noted that the recent drop caused the BTC price to fall below its network value (Metcalfe) for the first time in two years.
According to Peterson, Bitcoin has fallen below its network value determined by Metcalfe’s value model for the first time in two months.
He added that this is often a signal signaling the final stages of market resets and a Bitcoin recovery.
Bitcoin has fallen below its network value for the first time in two years. While this doesn’t necessarily signal a bottom, it does suggest that much of the leverage has dissipated and the ‘bubble’ is deflating.
The analyst said that Bitcoin network value determined by Metcalfe’s law is a good indicator for predicting future price performance.
Peterson added that data shows that the probability of a positive return is as high as 96% one year after the spot price falls below the Metcalfe value.
The Spot Price/Metcalfe Value has been a good indicator of Bitcoin’s future performance. On any given day, when the price is below the Metcalfe, it can deliver a 96% return after one year, which translates to an average gain of 132%.
Notably, when the BTC/USD pair fell below its fair value in 2019 and 2020, the price experienced significant recoveries in the months that followed. This last occurred in early 2023, before the BTC price surged over 340% to reach its all-time high of $74,000 in March 2024.
*This is not investment advice.