Black Friday Cyber Monday shopping turnout NRF

A desire for deep discounts inspired 202.9 million U.S. consumers to shop during the five-day stretch from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday, according to a survey by the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics released on Tuesday.

That estimated total surpassed the major trade group’s forecast that 186.9 million people would shop during the five-day period. It also increased from last year’s turnout of 197 million shoppers during the same period.

The shopping turnout is the largest since NRF began tracking the five-day total in 2017, and topped the previous high of 200.4 million shoppers during the same days in 2023. The trade group does not estimate the total amount spent during the extended Thanksgiving weekend.

On a call with reporters, NRF CEO Matt Shay described the shopping period as “the psychological kickoff of the holidays.” He said the number of shoppers represented “a very, very solid beginning” to the season.

“One of the key drivers here is that for many Americans and many families, holiday spending and holiday shopping is an essential part of the budget,” he said.

Even when consumers are pulling back and making trade offs, they may still shop as December approaches. Shay said the holidays are “very much an emotional purchase.”

Retailers and economists are closely watching spending during the peak shopping season while trying to make sense of conflicting indicators about the country and U.S. households’ outlook. While consumer sentiment has tumbled and a growing number of major companies have laid off thousands of employees, retail sales data remains solid.

Even during time of year that typically brings higher store traffic, retailers have looked for ways to manage one of their top costs: labor. Holiday hiring by retailers is expected to total between 265,000 and 365,000 roles this year, the lowest number of seasonal workers in at least 15 years, according to the NRF.

Despite that, the NRF anticipates U.S. consumers will still spend freely on gifts, decor and more. The trade group said in early November that it expects holiday spending to hit a record of between $1.1 trillion to $1.2 trillion from Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, the first time the total would top $1 trillion.

That would represent a 3.7% to 4.2% increase from the year-ago holiday period. It would be a slight drop from last year’s 4.3% holiday sales growth rate. NRF’s forecast excludes auto dealers, gas stations and restaurants.

Shay said the Thanksgiving weekend spending gives the industry group confidence it’s on track to hit that projection. At the end of Cyber Monday, shoppers told NRF that they had about 53% of their holiday shopping remaining, which is similar to a year ago.

Consumers said in the survey that they were motivated to make purchases during the five days because of sales and promotions, such as free shipping and limited-time deals, said Phil Rist, executive vice president at Prosper Insights and Analytics, the research firm that conducts NRF’s annual survey. The poll included nearly 3,100 adults and was conducted from Nov. 26 to Nov. 30.

Mark Mathews, chief economist for the NRF, said “there’s a moat around this type of spending” for families across income levels. He said financially stretched households typically cut back in other areas like recreation and travel as they prioritize spending on the holidays.

He added that he expects shoppers to buy bigger baskets of items this season, including items that aren’t for the holidays, because shoppers “want to take advantage of these great deals that they’re seeing.”

Top gifts bought during the five-day span were clothing and accessories, with 51% of consumers surveyed saying they bought items in the category, followed by toys with 32%, books and other media with 28% and gift cards with 26%.

A total of 129.5 million consumers shopped in stores over the five days, a 3% year over year increase, the survey found, even as the more Americans have done more of their Black Friday shopping online in recent years. The online shopping turnout jumped even more — by 9% year over year — as 134.9 million people shopped on retailers’ websites and apps.

Other research indicated a step up in online spending, too. U.S. consumers spent a total of $14.25 billion online on Cyber Monday, a 7.1% year over year increase, according to Adobe Analytics. The company analyzes direct transactions online and covers over 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million individual items and 18 product categories.  

During the five-day stretch from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, Adobe said consumers spent $44.2 billion online overall — a 7.7% year-over-year jump. A significant chunk of that came from online spending on Black Friday, which totaled $11.8 billion and grew by 9.1% year over year as shoppers sought out early deals.