Shares of Apple Inc. (AAPL) have rallied even as the broader markets have stumbled. We are seeing clear rotation into the iPhone maker as a defensive play, aided by traction in the latest upgrade cycle. AAPL now sits at a staggering $4.18 trillion market cap.
But whatever reasons the mainstream media gives for the rally, a technical trader purely looks at the charts. And the charts are saying this run is over. In fact, Apple is likely marking a major cycle high right here.
The key feature is a massive parallel channel stretching back to the March 2020 Covid lows. The lower trendline connects perfectly through Covid lows in March 2020, the bear market low in 2022 and the “Liberation Day” tariff collapse in April 2025. The upper parallel trendline aligns precisely with the 2021 bull market high and the December 2024 highs.
The recent surge in AAPL has now tagged this upper trendline again.
Note that a parallel channel is far more significant than a single trendline. The existence of the second, parallel line (the lower boundary) confirms the pattern’s validity and increases its predictive power. Hitting the top of this channel signals a high-probability rejection.
Look for a pullback in the near term. Furthermore, 2026 could see a decline all the way back to the lower end of the parallel channel, currently sitting at $210. Apple is a strong short off this $283 resistance level.
