A growing group of analysts is pushing back against the idea that Bitcoin has entered a long-term slump.
Key Takeaways
- Grayscale says Bitcoin’s recent drop looks like a mid-bull-market correction, not a collapse.
- The firm argues that the halving cycle has weakened because institutions now dominate demand.
- Analysts see 2026 — not 2025 — as the probable window for new all-time highs.
Among them is Grayscale, which argues that traders are misinterpreting the recent selloff — and that what looks like exhaustion may actually be the middle phase of an uptrend rather than the beginning of a collapse.
In other words: the downturn might be telling the opposite story of what most investors assume.
Bitcoin Didn’t “Break” — Traders Just Forgot How Bull Markets Behave
Grayscale’s research notes that Bitcoin has fallen 32% since October, briefly dipping to $84,000 before stabilizing around $86,900. The instinctive reaction has been fear that the cycle is over.
But Grayscale stresses that pullbacks of 25% or more are routine in major bull markets — not the signal that a peak has already happened. The firm says Bitcoin is still showing structural strength despite volatility rather than because of it.
Their position: volatility right now is a feature of the cycle, not proof that the cycle is ending.
The Old “Four-Year Clock” Doesn’t Explain This Market Anymore
For more than a decade, Bitcoin’s history seemed to revolve around halving events: supply shock → dramatic rally → harsh crash → reset.
This cycle is behaving differently.
Grayscale says there’s a reason: the investor base has changed. Instead of retail speculation driving every phase of the market, institutional buyers now anchor the demand side — through ETFs, corporate treasury strategies and long-term allocation models.
That change means Bitcoin is reacting more to liquidity, interest rates and regulation than to a predictable four-year countdown.
What Could Push Bitcoin to New Highs
If the four-year cycle can no longer predict peaks, what can?
Grayscale flags three forces that didn’t exist in previous eras and now carry outsized influence:
• institutional allocations through ETFs
• expected rate cuts that would ease liquidity conditions
• rare bipartisan momentum for U.S. crypto legislation
Together, the firm suggests, those factors could set the stage for Bitcoin to explore new price territory in 2026 — with or without a halving-driven mania.
Others Are Reaching the Same Conclusion
BitMine CEO Tom Lee — known for his Ethereum-first perspective — lands on the same timeline, projecting that Bitcoin could set a new record as early as January 2026 if macro conditions tilt supportive.
The unexpected overlap between analysts who normally disagree has given weight to the idea that the recent selloff didn’t mark the top — it marked an interruption.
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Alex is an experienced financial journalist and cryptocurrency enthusiast. With over 8 years of experience covering the crypto, blockchain, and fintech industries, he is well-versed in the complex and ever-evolving world of digital assets. His insightful and thought-provoking articles provide readers with a clear picture of the latest developments and trends in the market. His approach allows him to break down complex ideas into accessible and in-depth content. Follow his publications to stay up to date with the most important trends and topics.
Source: https://coindoo.com/bitcoin-isnt-crashing-heres-what-grayscale-thinks-is-really-happening/