Whenever the S&P 500’s annual Rate of Change dips into negative territory, Bitcoin has found its cycle bottom.
Source: Alphractal
This isn’t just a one-off quirk, either. Several major global indices show the same rhythm. Case in point:
Source: Alphractal
The pattern could mean a deeper liquidity link between stocks and BTC, where weakness in one often means strength in the other.
Critical structural support!
On-chain data is clear. The CVDD Channel (used to find key support levels) places that line in the sand near $88,000.
This is very similar to what BTC faced around $29k-$30k in mid-2022, a level it initially defended before eventually breaking lower.
Source: Alphractal
If $88k fails now, patterns indicate that the next areas of value are around $76,800 and even $71,250.
At the same time, retail interest is fading fast, a clear indicator of late-cycle capitulation.
Source: Santiment
The coming weeks will tell which way the market swings.
Final Thoughts
- Bitcoin’s next move depends on whether the CVDD support at $88,000 holds or cracks.
- With the Yen carry unwind accelerating, liquidity stress could decide BTC’s short-term fate.
Source: https://ambcrypto.com/bitcoin-why-japans-yen-carry-fears-put-btcs-88k-support-at-risk/