CME FedWatch Shows 87.6% Chance of December Fed Rate Cut

On December 2, 2025, the CME FedWatch tool reported an 87.6% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve this month.

Higher rate cut expectations buoy crypto markets, with leveraged ETH and BTC positions reflecting increased risk appetite.

Federal Reserve Rate Cut Likelihood Climbs to 87.6%

The latest FedWatch data shows a slight increase to an 87.6% probability of a rate cut, compared to 87.4% reported the previous day. This expectation has not received any official confirmation from the Federal Reserve, but market sentiment indicates anticipation of a shift toward looser monetary policy.

Changes in interest rate expectations often influence financial markets by driving up the value of risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. Market confidence in rate cuts often sees investors positively adjusting their portfolios, evidenced by leveraged positions such as ETH and BTC.

Jerome Powell, Chair, U.S. Federal Reserve, remarked, “The current market expectations reflect a strong belief in easing monetary policy to support the economy, driven by recent economic data.”

Cryptocurrency Market Rallies Amid Rate Cut Expectations

Did you know? Historically, high expectations of rate cuts have coincided with substantial rallies in major cryptocurrencies, as seen in late 2024, during periods of increased economic liquidity demands.

Ethereum’s recent data shows a current price of $2,803.71 and a market cap of $338.40 billion, reflecting its 11.48% dominance. Trading volumes reached $32.33 billion in the past 24 hours, despite a 1.65% drop during this timeframe. These figures, captured by CoinMarketCap, highlight the cryptocurrency’s recent volatility and market influence.

Insights from the Coincu research team suggest the potential for continued crypto sector growth should the Federal Reserve proceed with a rate cut. Analysts note monetary easing could lead to enhanced asset allocation toward crypto investments, fostering an upward market trend.