EUR/GBP implied volatility hits post-2022 high – ING

EUR/GBP implied volatility jumps above realised levels to the highest since the 2022 Mini Budget, reflecting market caution ahead of tomorrow’s UK Budget announcement, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

Currency market on edge ahead of UK budget

“EUR/GBP one-week implied volatility is trading 3 vols above realised, which is the highest relative gap since the 2022 Mini Budget. This signals that despite some recovery in back-end gilts, the currency market remains concerned ahead of tomorrow’s UK Budget announcement.”

“The pair may hold around 0.880 for today amid a wait-and-see approach. That is, unless some Budget anticipations appear in the media and move the market (a non-negligible risk).”