Dogecoin: Whales step back, retail steps in – Why DOGE is stuck

Dogecoin still maintained the top-10 position despite dropping below $0.15. The last week of November has been bullish, but DOGE has only managed a gain of about 4% this week.

The market cap for the memecoin traded at $22 billion at press time. Recent activity on the chain could explain the current trend in DOGE.

This decline occurs against the backdrop of Vitalik Buterin’s old remarks about Dogecoin [DOGE], which have been resurfacing. Back then, Vitalik heaped praise on DOGE during the interview.

Will the memecoin bounce from the current dip, or will the price continue declining?

Worrying Dogecoin activity!

According to data from Santiment, the whale transaction count, which involved over $1 million positions, dropped heavily in the past two months. The number declined from 285 to below 38 when writing.

The decrease meant the institutions and influential individuals were easing their involvement with the DOGE market. That way, prices have stayed below 2024 pre-election levels in this two-month retracement.

Source: Ali Charts/X

Since then, the overlaid price action of Dogecoin has dropped from $0.271 to as low as $0.13. Such major drops have marked key market turns in the past, but was that aligning with any other on-chain signal?

How are participants acting?

Data from CryptoQuant showed that whales were active on the Spot market as opposed to the Futures one, meaning they were accumulating. However, this accumulation was slow, as the aforementioned data indicated.

On the other hand, the Futures market was crowded by retail when writing. This helped explain why the market was sluggish, as retailers have limited capital that can push the price of assets.

Source: CryptoQuant

The market sentiment gauge reflected the participants’ activities. Whales and retail once again showed their differences.

The crowd, which was active in the Futures market, was bearish at press time, with a reading of 1.31. This meant they were selling the memecoin, explaining the struggles in price.

Source: Market Prophit

Though very few, the Smart Money buyers were faintly bullish. This presented contrasting data for the next price outlook of Dogecoin.

Will DOGE rally next?

The charts showed that Dogecoin had broken below a key price level. Historical data for Q4 2024 showed that the breakdown of the two-touched support level was followed with a price rally.

Trader Tardigrade, an analyst on X, noted that Dogecoin could see a pump, potentially surpassing the $0.60 threshold.

This was likened to the previous drop after Dogecoin fell below the second support level, as indicated on the chart.

Source: Trader Tardigrade/X

However, this is dependent on the bigger outlook of the crypto market. Markets were struggling, and so was Dogecoin, but the current retracement in chain activity and price action could be coming to an end.

Final Thoughts 

• Dogecoin activity dips as the price follows with it; whales and retail stay divided in sentiment.
• Dogecoin’s technical outlook could be hinting at a looming rally if history repeats.