Ethereum holds $3K with neutral MVRV – Can Fusaka ignite a breakout?

The market is in ‘cautious optimism,’ as traders look to regain footing.

Ethereum [ETH] isn’t immune. Down -26% for anyone who jumped in at the start of Q4, it’s lagging behind Bitcoin [BTC]. Plus, it cracked the $3k floor for the first time since July, pushing more HODLers underwater.

In this context, for ETH to trigger FOMO, it really needs to hold this level. If it does, we could see the start of a bullish reversal. Interestingly, a mix of macro and micro factors suggests this might actually be happening.

Ethereum market finds balance amid fluctuations

Ethereum shows the market is in a delicate phase.

At press time, ETH was trading at $3k, while the Realized Price sat at $2,315 and the MVRV was at 1.27. This means the market price is just 27% above the realized price, signaling a neutral balance between buyers and sellers.

In simple terms, Ethereum isn’t overheated. Shareholders aren’t sitting on large unrealized gains or losses, which helps keep consolidation around $3k steady, supporting stability unless MVRV drops sharply below 1.

Source: CryptoQuant

At 1.27, ETH looks balanced, with no extreme pressure on either side.

Looking ahead, Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade is set for the 3rd of December, less than a week away. Traders are already showing bullish sentiment, anticipating higher network activity and smoother transaction flows. 

Notably, this optimism seems grounded in fundamentals rather than “hype.” Could this be the setup for ETH to see a meaningful post-upgrade move, especially with the MVRV hovering around neutral levels?

ETH staking and block changes signal early market moves

Investors are showing clear signs of early conviction. 

For example, the Royal Government of Bhutan recently staked about $970k in ETH, while VanEck’s ETH ETN added 12,600 ETH to staking. In fact, over the past ten days, Ethereum’s TVS has grown by 160k ETH.

Meanwhile, Ethereum has raised its block gas limit to 60 million, up from 45 million just four days ago. Simply put, this gives each block more room for transactions, improving throughput and easing network congestion.

Source: EtherScan

In short, ETH is expanding its capacity right before the Fusaka upgrade.

And when you pair that with the jump in staking flows, it’s clear investors are showing stronger long-term commitment. That’s turning the upcoming upgrade into a catalyst as traders start positioning early.

In this context, Ethereum’s neutral MVRV adds to the setup. 

At around 1.27, the market isn’t overheated or oversold, giving ETH room to move if a catalyst hits. With Fusaka coming up, more staking, and higher block capacity, ETH may be laying the groundwork for its next move.

Final Thoughts

• Ethereum is holding a neutral MVRV, giving the market room to move ahead of the Fusaka upgrade.
• Rising staking flows and early investor positioning signal growing conviction that the upgrade could act as a bullish catalyst.