André Dragosch, Bitwise’s European Research Director, described his new study on the relationship between Bitcoin (BTC) and macroeconomic indicators as “the most important Bitcoin & Macro analysis I’ve ever done.”
Dragosch analyzed how Bitcoin reflects global growth expectations by asking the fundamental question in financial markets: “What is the market currently pricing in?”
Dragosch explained that he combined various macro survey data to determine which global growth scenario Bitcoin is pricing in. The results indicate that Bitcoin is pricing in an extremely pessimistic global growth outlook, a level not seen since the 2022 Fed tightening, the FTX crash, and the 2020 Covid shock. “Bitcoin is currently pricing in a growth environment that portends a recession,” the expert said. “In other words, most of the bad news has already been reflected in the price.”
Dragosch stated that the macro outlook can sometimes be mispriced and that such periods are “the most productive for generating information,” noting that Bitcoin can both exceed and sometimes fall short of macro expectations. Describing himself as a “contrarian on macro issues,” Dragosch stated that he believes the current outlook represents one of these unique opportunities.
According to Dragosch, growth expectations in the global economy have actually entered a reacceleration phase, and this trend is expected to strengthen until 2026. However, Dragosch said that Bitcoin is still “recession-pricing,” arguing that this mismatch creates a strong bullish base:
The last time I saw such an asymmetric risk-return environment was during the COVID-19 era. Bitcoin recovered rapidly after the March 2020 shock and surged sixfold by the end of the year. We may be facing a similar macro setup now. There’s a sense of trapped energy, like a ball being held underwater.
*This is not investment advice.