Fed’s $6.56T Signal Lights Up Crypto’s $3.1T Comeback

Traders are eyeing the Federal Reserve’s $6.56 trillion balance sheet as crypto on-chain data and total market cap begin to recover. Fresh liquidity narratives now sit beside signs of short-term Bitcoin relief and a $3.1 trillion rebound in the broader crypto market.

Fed Balance Sheet Release: What’s Real, What’s Framed

The Federal Reserve will release its weekly balance sheet at 4:30 p.m. Eastern time on Thursday in its regular H.4.1 report. The update gives markets a fresh look at the central bank’s total assets and liabilities.

The Fed’s balance sheet recently stood near $6.56 trillion, down from a peak of about $8.97 trillion. Because of that, traders highlight the $6.55 trillion level as a reference point for current liquidity rather than an official policy line.

On social platforms, one macro-crypto trader says a reading above $6.55 trillion could send risk assets sharply higher and describes that outcome as “parabolic.” That expectation reflects trader opinion, not Federal Reserve guidance.

For now, the 4:30 p.m. release remains a routine data point. Market participants will fold the numbers into their broader macro view while separating hard balance-sheet data from speculative scenarios.

Short-Term Bitcoin Holders Recover From “Max Pain” Phase

Meanwhile, on-chain data suggest short-term Bitcoin holders are starting to recover after a deep loss phase. A chart shared by analyst Frank shows the short-term holder supply profit and loss ratio rebounding from levels marked as “bottom” earlier in 2025. The indicator tracks what share of recently bought coins sit in profit versus loss.

Short Term Holder Supply Profit Loss Ratio. Source: Frank on X

In the latest reading, the curve has lifted off the extreme loss zone and is moving back toward the break-even band. Frank says this shift means many recent buyers have already absorbed “max pain,” and their average cost basis is now approaching current market prices again. A similar pattern appeared around the previous local low near 75,000 dollars before prices later advanced.

The new chart marks today’s area near 82,000 dollars with a second “bottom?” label, hinting that short-term capitulation may have run its course. However, the signal reflects analyst interpretation rather than a guarantee of trend reversal. Traders are watching whether continued recovery in the short-term holder cohort will coincide with more stable spot flows and reduced forced selling.

Crypto Market Cap Rebounds Above 50-Period EMA

The global crypto market is recovering after a sharp November sell-off. A four-hour TradingView chart for total crypto market cap shows value near 3.1 trillion dollars, up from recent lows below 3 trillion.

Crypto Total Market Cap 4h Chart. Source: TradingView

Price now trades above the 50-period exponential moving average, which sits close to 3.02 trillion dollars. That move marks the first sustained break above the trend line since mid-month, signaling that sellers have lost some control.

At the same time, the 14-period RSI prints around 66, moving out of neutral territory and into a stronger momentum zone. The indicator rebounded from oversold levels seen during the mid-November drop, tracking the market’s steady grind higher.

Volume bars highlight heavier activity during the bounce off the lows and slightly lighter flows as price approaches the 3.1 trillion area. Together, the signals point to a market that has stabilized, with buyers gradually rebuilding total capitalization after the earlier drawdown.