Analyst sees new Bitcoin ATH as IBIT options surge 40x – Here’s why

Bitcoin [BTC] is beginning to recover after dropping below $90,000. At press time, BTC was trading at $91,485.80 with a 0.26% gain in the past 24 hours and a stronger 6.17% rise over the past week.

Despite this move, BTC remains significantly below its recent high of $124,500.

This technical recovery forms the backdrop for renewed, highly optimistic price predictions from prominent advocates who believe the institutionalization of crypto derivatives is about to trigger a parabolic move.

Max Keiser’s Bitcoin prediction

Bitcoin analyst Max Keiser has captured the current bullish sentiment, predicting that a new all‑time high (ATH) is on the horizon.

He bases this forecast on Nasdaq’s recent filing to expand options contracts for BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). According to Keiser, this move has fundamentally altered the market dynamics.

In a post on X (formerly Twitter), he provided further explanation. With the derivatives market for the spot Bitcoin ETF expanding nearly 40‑fold, he argues that the added “financial plumbing” will unlock institutional leverage and liquidity.

Together, these forces could propel Bitcoin’s price to unprecedented levels.

He said, 

“I said a year ago, the next Bitcoin pullback would come when market hit size barriers (for market-makers). That problem now solved with 40x increase in options contract size.”

Details of the Nasdaq filing that led to this prediction

Nasdaq’s recent filing to raise the options limit on BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF to 1 million contracts highlights a major shift in institutional expectations for the crypto market.

This change indicates that the exchange foresees demand for the spot Bitcoin ETF far beyond the current capacity of the derivatives market.

By expanding derivatives capacity 40‑fold, Nasdaq is sending a strong signal. Large institutions are preparing to use IBIT not just cautiously, but for significant hedging, leverage, and speculation.

Together, these moves mark a transition from tentative participation to deep integration of Bitcoin into institutional trading strategies.

Expressing the same, Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst, added, 

“Good catch.. new proposal to raise position limits on IBIT optons to 1 million contracts. They just raised the limit to 250,000 (from 25,000) in July. $IBIT is now the biggest bitcoin options market in the world by open interest.”

Keiser’s prediction timing is interesting

That said, Max Keiser’s current bullish thesis is rooted in an institutional supply-side argument he first articulated in 2017.

On the 2nd of November 2017, Keiser posted,

“Wall St traders need inventory. They’re accumulating #Bitcoin now with a $ trillion shopping spree. Welcome to the Big Leagues, Satoshi.”

Max Keiser’s core idea has long been that institutional participation in Bitcoin requires a massive inventory of physical BTC. 

He argued that Wall Street traders, market makers, broker/dealers, and hedge funds must first accumulate this inventory before higher prices can be sustained.

Keiser reinforced this view repeatedly over the years. On the 7th of December 2017, he stated that the industry was “building #Bitcoin inventory now.” He echoed the same point on 6 September 2019, noting that institutions were “building inventory for their market‑making needs.”

Fast-forward to today, and the expansion of the IBIT options market gives institutions the ability to deploy capital and manage risk at scale.

Keiser sees this as the final technical validation of his thesis. In his view, the structural conditions are now in place: inventory accumulation and deep liquidity plumbing for professional market makers. 

Together, these factors could ease supply constraints and set the stage for Bitcoin’s next all‑time high cycle.

But is Bitcoin actually ready for a rally?

Despite Bitcoin stabilizing above $90k, market sentiment remains cautious. Options traders have scaled back expectations for a “Santa rally,” while the 25 Delta Risk Reversal shows a premium for hedging activity through year‑end.

Analysts add that momentum is still “deeply negative” and highly tactical. For a genuine bullish shift to emerge, Bitcoin must first stabilize in the $95k–$96.5k range.

Ultimately, the market’s direction heading into year‑end depends less on organic strength and more on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate decision.

Final Thoughts

• Institutional demand and expanded derivatives capacity could set the stage for Bitcoin’s next all‑time high cycle.
• Short‑term momentum remains fragile, with the Federal Reserve’s rate decision likely to dictate year‑end direction.
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